The term "generational talent" can get thrown around too easily sometimes. However, even in a deep running back class this year, Ashton Jeanty fit the bill. The Las Vegas Raiders were the perfect match for the Boise State product as they severely needed help in the backfield for their run-heavy offense.
There's no doubt Jeanty is already the Raiders' clear-cut No. 1 running back, and there are high expectations for what he'll do as a rookie. With an improved passing offense in Las Vegas as well, Jeanty can showcase his pass-catching ability and be set up for immediate success.
By sheer volume of touches, and as long as he stays healthy, Jeanty will have a solid production floor in his first year. He also has an incredibly high ceiling as a young player, but it will be important for him and the team to understand how he can reach it.
PFF thinks Ashton Jeanty could have historic rookie season
Recently, Pro Football Focus' Bradley Locker laid out a path for how Jeanty could assemble the best rookie season in NFL history. He began by acknowledging what a special talent he was during his final season at Boise State.
"Jeanty’s 2024 campaign was one for the ages, producing a 96.6 PFF rushing grade, 1,970 yards after contact — more than any player registered in regular rushing yards — and 152 missed tackles forced, all of which reset PFF College records," Locker wrote.
Locker then went on to explain how rare it is for a rookie running back to have a truly elite season. He used a broader historical context as well as PFF history to support this point.
"To set the table for Jeanty, it’s important to contextualize the mountains he’ll have to climb to assert himself as the best first-year RB of all time," wrote Locker. "The most obvious stat to follow will be rushing yards, and the current record holder is Eric Dickerson at 1,808 in 1983. Only five rookie runners have eclipsed the 1,600-yard threshold, including George Rogers (1981) and Ottis Anderson (1979)."
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While this would be elite company for Jeanty to keep as a young player, it is important to maintain reasonable expectations for the rookie.
"The 1,000-foot view of Jeanty’s landmarks is that, in PFF history, very few rookie running backs have produced elite first seasons," Locker wrote. "In fact, only four such players have reached a 90.0 PFF rushing grade (min. 200 snaps) in Year 1, and just five have amassed a 90.0 overall PFF grade."
However, Locker then turned more optimistic when he noted Jeanty's elite yards after contact and forced missed tackle metrics last season. He also talked about how offensive coordinator Chip Kelly's run scheme at Ohio State was similar to what Boise State did, but Jeanty can fit any run game scheme anyway.
"Given how unbelievable Jeanty’s career at Boise State was, expectations will be sky high for what he can accomplish in his first NFL season in Las Vegas," Locker wrote. "Jeanty faces tough competition to unseat for the title of the league’s best back in his first year, but he should barrel toward recent (if not historic) rookie running back records with little in his path."
Jeanty is in very rare air already as a running back prospect, and although much is expected from him in his rookie year, there is a clear path to him having a historic campaign for the Raiders.