After the first four weeks of the 2026 NFL season, it felt like the Las Vegas Raiders could eventually be playoff-bound. They started the campaign 3-0 and battled the still-undefeated Kansas City Chiefs in a 30-27 loss in Week 4, which proved that the Silver and Black could hang with anybody.
But a blowout defeat in Week 5 against a New England Patriots team battered by injuries completely changed the sentiment. All of a sudden, these were the same old Raiders, and Klint Kubiak's team was not deemed a contender. Many began to say that the first four weeks were a fluke.
However, at 3-2, Las Vegas still clung to a spot in the playoffs ahead of Week 6. And while a close loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday once again altered the narrative around the Raiders, a loss is a loss. Now, for the first time all year, they are on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff picture.
Updated AFC Playoff Picture after Week 6 shows how far Raiders have fallen
1. Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)
2. Buffalo Bills (5-1)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2)
4. Cleveland Browns (4-2)
5. New England Patriots (4-2)
6. Denver Broncos (4-2)
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
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8. Baltimore Ravens (4-2)
9. Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)
10. Las Vegas Raiders (3-3)
11. New York Jets (2-4)
12. Indianapolis Colts (2-4)
13. Houston Texans (2-4)
14. Tennessee Titans (1-5)
15. Miami Dolphins (0-5)
16. Los Angeles Chargers (0-6)
The Raiders never had control of the AFC West, but they were sitting very pretty in the early going. They beat the Los Angeles Chargers and could have sat atop the division by themselves with a win over the Chiefs in Week 4. The Denver Broncos were slow out of the gates and trailing Las Vegas.
A three-game slide, however, has put the Silver and Black back in third place, and what's worse is that they no longer own a Wild Card spot. In the last few weeks, they held the No. 5, No. 6 or No. 7 seed, but they have dropped all the way to No. 10, wholly behind two other teams that are also "in the hunt."
Of course, it is still very early, and the margins are especially thin at this juncture. If a few things go the Raiders' way in Week 7, then they could jump back into the picture in the blink of an eye. But losing a handful of AFC games and plummeting behind several teams in a tight AFC North race isn't ideal.
As far as the rest of the picture, the Chiefs continue to look like a team ready for phase two of their dynastic ways, led this time by an elite rushing attack. They have yet to lose and will remain at No. 1 with a bye in the postseason until somebody knocks them off.
Buffalo is expectedly just behind them at 5-1. In a way, Las Vegas should see this and feel good, as they have lost to the AFC's top two teams by a combined six points. But moral victories don't get a team into the playoffs; a strong record does. This isn't the College Football Playoff.
Jacksonville looks like the easy choice for an AFC South division that is filled with underachievers, and the AFC North is surprisingly strong with four teams above .500. Most shocking is that the Browns lead the way and the Steelers are just behind them. That'll be a tight race.
New England was slow out of the gates again but gave the Bills their only loss and is clinging to the top Wild Card spot. Had the Raiders not been trounced by them, it'd be easy to feel even better about how the Silver and Black compare to the very best in the conference.
Denver has found its mojo... kind of. They continue to scrape by, in a way, but they are also 4-2 against a gauntlet of a schedule, losing only to the undefeated Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. Bo Nix may stink, but Sean Payton's team is still somehow a force to be reckoned with. I will never understand it.
Trailing the Raiders, at least in a somewhat threatening way, are the Jets, Colts and Texans, all of whom are 2-4. Beating New York in Week 8 will be pivotal for this reason. Indianapolis just fired their GM, so they seem a bit lost, but it'd be foolish to act like Houston is not a very good football team.
Bringing up the rear is the Tennessee Titans, who are both struggling on the field and embroiled in some organizational issues, and the winless Dolphins and Chargers. While Miami's struggle was expected, nobody thought that Los Angeles would be so putrid and directionless at this point.
But it's glorious nonetheless.
Beating the Los Angeles Rams in Week 7 would do wonders for Las Vegas' playoff hopes, as NFL.com currently has the Raiders at a 19% chance to make the postseason. With a win, that jumps to 26%. With a loss, that drops to a mere 14%. Let's get back on track and climb back in the standings.
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