Raiders case study: The 2007 New York Giants

General themes

There are some random connections between the two NFL teams that I’d like to briefly mention before we get to the serious similarities between both the makeup and statistics of these two squads. 

Oddly enough, Luke Getsy’s top receiver when he was playing quarterback at the University of Akron, Domenik Hixon, was a member of the 2007-08 Giants. He actually ran a kickoff back for a touchdown during the season and caught one ball for five yards. Also, both the Raiders and Giants had a brand new GM that came up through the scouting ranks; Jerry Reese was in his first ever season as a GM for the Giants, and Tom Telesco will be entering his first season as a GM for the Raiders. 

Alright, now for the meat and potatoes. 

As it pertains to the Giants in 2007, they had the 14th-best scoring offense at 23.3 points per game, but they had the seventh most turnovers of any team in the league. Last season, the Raiders averaged 19.5 points per game, which is good for 23rd in the league, and they were 13th in the NFL in total turnovers. Is it crazy to think that the Raiders' offense can reach the level of the 2007 Giants this season? We are talking about an improvement of just under four points per game, which, given our offseason changes, can easily be attained.

Aidan O’Connell or Gardner Minshew, whoever wins the starting QB job, will be much more effective than Jimmy Garoppolo was early in 2023 or rookie AOC was at points last season. Oh, and the team has a new offensive coordinator.

With far less talent and in a division with better defenses, OC Luke Getsy was able to manage 21.2 points per game with the Chicago Bears last season, which landed at 18th in the league. The Raiders also added Brock Bowers in the draft, and they have two emerging pass catchers in Michael Mayer and Tre Tucker. There are tons to be optimistic about with this offense, and I don’t see why they couldn’t score 23.3 a game and be at least average.

When it comes to the other side of the ball, it may shock people to acknowledge that the Giants ’07 defense was fairly average all season; they came up big when they needed to in the playoffs. During the regular season, the squad gave up 21.9 points per game, which was 17th in the league, whereas the Raiders 2023 finished the season ranked 9th in scoring defense, surrendering a mere 19.5 points per game. It should be noted too that after Pierce took over as coach, the defense only gave up 16 points a game. 

These defenses are similar in the sense that they were not perfect or consistent all year long, but they held strong and made big plays in the most crucial moments down the stretch of the season. When I think of the 2023 defense for Las Vegas, I remember them limiting the Miami Dolphins’ explosive offense, shutting down Patrick Mahomes on Christmas Day, Amik Robertson leaping through the air for a game-sealing interception against Green Bay or being in the stands watching Bilal Nichols and Maxx Crosby safety Mac Jones to end the game.

When people think of the Giants' 2007 defense, surely they think of the dominant run they made in the postseason. They held Pro Bowl Jeff Garcia to 14 points, prime Tony Romo and Brett Favre to 17 and 20 points respectively, and the greatest QB of all time, Tom Brady, to 14 points in the Super Bowl. 

There is absolutely no reason to think that the Raiders' defense in 2024 cannot perform at the level of the 2007 Giants, in fact, they could exceed it. If the offense improves as it should, then on paper, the Raiders will be successful in 2024 and can win 10 games, just like the Giants did. This means we would likely make the playoffs as a Wildcard, again, just like the Giants. There is a bit of magic that goes into winning a Super Bowl as an underdog, but after all the bad luck that the Raiders have been through over the last two decades, something tells me that it’s our turn now.