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Raiders favored to draft Michael Penix in latest 2024 NFL Draft odds

Could the Washington signal-caller head to the desert later this month? 

By Shelby Dermer

Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) throws a pass against Michigan. Penix was the Heisman Trophy runner-up in 2023 after leading Washington to the national title game.
Jan 8, 2024; Houston, TX, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) throws a pass against Michigan. Penix was the Heisman Trophy runner-up in 2023 after leading Washington to the national title game. / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
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The Las Vegas Raiders had one of the better in-season turnarounds in 2023. Las Vegas fired head coach Josh McDaniels after a 3-5 start, and the team rallied under interim head coach Antonio Pierce to finish the season 5-4. Though it didn’t end in a playoff berth, the Raiders removed the interim tag on Pierce and released quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. 

The Raiders still have decisions to make as they try to capitalize on last season’s strong finish. Most importantly, the franchise has to find its franchise quarterback. Rookie Aidan O’Connell went 5-5 as a starter last season, but wasn’t asked to do too much in throwing for just over 200 yards per game. 

Holding the 13th overall pick in this month’s draft, the Raiders could be in the market for a franchise quarterback and the betting odds have them linked to one of the many quarterbacks with first-round potential. 

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Raiders favored to draft Michael Penix in latest 2024 NFL Draft odds

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Raiders are favored to draft Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. later this month. 

While other quarterbacks are clear-cut favorites to land with a team, Penix is still +260 to be drafted by Las Vegas. Those odds carry an implied probability of 27.78% that he will be the first quarterback drafted by the Raiders in the first round since JaMarcus Russell went No. 1 overall in 2007. 

Dec 20, 2009; Denver, CO, USA; the Raiders haven't drafted a quarterback in the first round since taking JaMarcus Russell (2) with the No. 1 overall pick in 2007. Russell lasted just three seasons with the Raiders, throwing 18 touchdowns and 23 interceptions.
Dec 20, 2009; Denver, CO, USA; the Raiders haven't drafted a quarterback in the first round since taking JaMarcus Russell (2) with the No. 1 overall pick in 2007. Russell lasted just three seasons with the Raiders, throwing 18 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. / Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Penix brings a lot of experience from his six-season collegiate career between his time at Indiana and Washington. With the Huskies, Penix was No. 8 in the Heisman Trophy Award voting in 2022 and was the runner-up in 2023. Last season, Penix threw for a career-high 4,903 yards and 36 touchdowns in leading Washington to the national championship game. 

There are certainly dominoes that need to fall in order for Las Vegas to draft Penix with the 13th overall pick. There are a slew of quarterback-needy teams in front of the Raiders in the draft order, starting with the top-3 of Chicago, Washington and New England and ending with the two teams picking directly before Las Vegas in No. 11 Minnesota and No. 12 Denver. 

Minnesota is the betting favorite to draft Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy and the Broncos have moved to favorites to land Oregon’s Bo Nix. 

Oddsmakers not buying Raiders strong finish in 2023

With uncertainty at the game’s most important position, oddsmakers are not expecting a big season for the Raiders in 2024. Despite finishing last season 8-9, the Raiders have a 2024 win total of 6.5 games, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Las Vegas is one of six teams lined at 6.5 wins going into this season. Only the Carolina Panthers (4.5), New England Patriots (4.5) and Denver Broncos (5.5) have lower win totals. 

The Raiders are +300 (25% implied probability) of making the postseason for the first time since a Wild Card berth in 2021.

In a division that’s been one-sided in favor of the reigning Super Bowl-champion Chiefs, Las Vegas is a 12-to-1 (+1200) longshot to win its first AFC West title since Rich Gannon led the club to the Super Bowl in 2002. 

Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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