Where will Las Vegas finish in the AFC West?
Chiefs: 13-4
Raiders: 9-8
Chargers: 7-10
Broncos: 5-12
No other team in the AFC West is ready to dethrone the Chiefs. In fact, I'm not sure any team in the entire league is. Kansas City, barring a dramatic injury, is practically a shoo-in to win the division, as they've done every year since 2016, and a heavy Super Bowl favorite until proven otherwise.
The Raiders were on the cusp of the playoffs last season despite a lackluster campaign with no continuity. With a full offseason to prepare, head coach Antonio Pierce will have this team firing on all cylinders once again. They do not have some of the elite talent that other teams in the NFL have, but their style of play is built to combat this.
Patrick Graham and Pierce had the defense playing at an elite level after the latter took over as head coach, allowing only 16 points per game over the last nine contests, which was the best in the league during that stretch. Not to mention, they hired an offensive coordinator, Luke Getsy, and signed a quarterback, Gardner Minshew, who both led offenses better than the Raiders' last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers have the second easiest schedule in the NFL this season, and that is the only reason they are even approaching .500. Jim Harbaugh is a good coach but he has not coached an NFL game since 2014.
For context, 2014 was the year that Odell Beckham Jr. and Aaron Donald were winning ROOKIE of the Year Awards. Drew Brees led the league in passing, DeMarco Murray in rushing, and Antonio Brown in receiving. The Raiders were in Oakland with a rookie Derek Carr at quarterback, and the Chargers were in San Diego. Peyton Manning was under center for the Broncos, and Patrick Mahomes was a freshman at Texas Tech.
Simply put, it has been a while, and coaching the NFL is not like riding a bike. The handlebars are different, the seat is different, and the ground you're riding on is different. Past success in this case does not indicate anything for the future.
Greg Roman, their offensive coordinator, is going to try and replicate his rushing success with the Ravens from 2022 in Los Angeles this season. But he will have to do so without the threat of Lamar Jackson keeping the ball for himself. When the team inevitably becomes one-dimensional as they try to establish the run, Justin Herbert will be forced to rely on his bottom-three pass catching unit to bail him out.
The defense has some solid young pieces, but most of their talent is aging and constantly injured. Khalil Mack had an outlier season last year, but Joey Bosa is already injured again. Jesse Minter, their defensive coordinator, has never called plays for an NFL team before, so a steep learning curve is expected there.
As for the Broncos, they showed all offseason that they are a rebuilding team. They cut ties with expensive players like Russell Wilson and Justin Simmons despite their solid performances last season, and they let go of players like Tim Patrick and Josey Jewell.
But all of a sudden, when the rookie quarterback that Sean Payton got stuck with at pick 12 in the draft had a few solid performances against reserve units in the preseason, the team is suddenly a contender again according to fans and the media alike. But I don't buy that.
Bo Nix may very well end up being a good quarterback, but that does not mean the team will have success this season. They had one of the worst defenses against the run last year and made no significant improvements in that department, and their pass-catching group is among the worst in the league as well.
Courtland Sutton needs to have a Calvin Johnson-like impact for this unit to make a splash, and there is no indication of that happening. Javonte Williams showed signs of decline last season, and while Jaleel McLaughlin and Josh Reynolds are respectable pieces, Nix won't be good enough on Day 1 to elevate this offense to a level that makes up for the Broncos' defensive struggles.
Pat Surtain II is one of the league's best, but Denver better hope that the teams they're playing only have one good receiver. If not, they're in trouble. Sean Payton and Co. have their work cut out for them if they want this team to be competitive. His seven-win season streak may be in jeopardy.