Comparing Raiders quarterback redzone success

Gardner Minshew vs Aidan O’Connell

For the statistical breakdowns between the two players, it is easiest to use a series of tables to compare. It should also be noted that Minshew played 331 more snaps than O’Connell last season. 

Given the difference in snap counts, it is quite shocking that the two players had the exact same amount of redzone completions. What’s even more impressive is how accurate O’Connell was inside the twenty, gathering the fourth-best completion percentage among qualifying QBs. His only interception, too, was in his first career appearance against the Chargers. 

More touchdowns given the snap differential are expected for Minshew, but the fact that he was able to throw only a single interception in the redzone all season is quite impressive. His completion percentage, however, was unimpressive in relation to O'Connell's.

However, Minshew's accuracy deteriorates even more inside the 10-yard line. 

O’Connell was accurate inside the twenty but having the second-highest completion percentage inside the 10-yard line is remarkable. That lone interception came inside the 10, but once again, that was in his first career start.  

Minshew, on the other hand, saw a decrease in his accuracy as things got tighter near the goal line. Having fewer completions on more attempts than O'Connell is discouraging, especially considering how much more he played. The interception numbers are still important though.

One aspect that Minshew brings is his mobility, and his redzone numbers back this up:

O'Connell is known for being a bit of a statue in the pocket, and that rushing touchdown is a bit deceiving as it was on a QB sneak in that same Chargers game. Yes, his rushing numbers are unimpressive but his ability to avoid sacks in the redzone is a positive.

For as mobile as Minshew is considered to be, his sack numbers are a bit concerning. Perhaps he extends plays and tries to make things happen more than AOC does, but taking sacks when in scoring position is a cardinal sin. His ability to run is a component that can keep defenses on their heels, and may ultimately give him a leg up in the competition.

Gardner Minshew does have a larger sample size than O’Connell does, and I think it is important to include his entire body of work inside the 20-yard line. 

Minshew has always been a high-touchdown, low-turnover guy in the redzone during his career, and I would not be shocked to see him continue this trend if given the opportunity this year.

Redzone stats only tell you so much, because obviously, a team can score from outside the twenty. The other component is that the QB has to be able to lead extended drives or convert on explosive plays to get there in the first place. 

The Raiders were 30th in 20+ yard plays and T-26th in 40+ yard plays in 2023. Simply put, the offense did not yield explosive plays last season. The Colts were 24th and T-6th respectively. Minshew seems capable of making bigger plays, but he is not quite as efficient when the field gets tight.

Once again, the battle is not won in the statistics or in discussions, it is won on the turf. In reality, last year’s success or shortcomings have no bearing on this year, so whoever plays better in practices and the preseason should get the job. I have faith in AP to make that decision.