Although the Las Vegas Raiders apparently took their time deciding on Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, it was obvious to everyone in the land that the Indiana quarterback would end up in the Silver and Black. It truly was the worst-kept secret.
But in an effort not to anoint their coveted pick and to protect their investment as much as possible, John Spytek signed Kirk Cousins, who has a history with Klint Kubiak. Both Spytek and Kubiak made it known in the pre-draft process, too, that they preferred a young quarterback to sit before playing.
Now, Las Vegas' leadership tandem has since walked those statements back a bit, remdinding fans that it will be a meritocracy in Las Vegas. So, this has left Raider Nation wondering exactly when they can expect to see Mendoza actually on the field playing important football for the team.
Some say he'll start right away, and others don't think that day will come until 2027. This should be decided in the offseason and preseason, but the truth also probably resides somewhere in the middle. Kevin Patra of NFL.com's prediction of Week 5 of this season seems just about right.
NFL writer predicts Fernando Mendoza takes reins in Week 5 for Las Vegas Raiders
Barring an injury or another unforeseen circumstance, the favorite to start under center for Las Vegas in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season seems to be Cousins. This is despite the fact that the last six No. 1 pick quarterbacks have started right away. But Patra pleaded his case as to why Week 5 made sense.
"This isn't a Marcus Mariota-Jayden Daniels situation. I've been critical of Cousins in the past, but he played solidly down the stretch last season and is an ideal fit for Kubiak's offense. He can provide a baseline and allow the rest of the offense to figure itself out without the added dimension of a rookie QB learning the offense.
"Mendoza could force Kubiak to toss that all out the window with a splashy offseason and preseason. The pressure to play a No. 1 pick is real. But coming from an RPO system, it could take some adjustment before the Indiana product is fully ready.
"There is no question that Mendoza is the future. When he sees the field could be determined by how the Raiders open the season. If they fall flat in the first few weeks, Vegas will be forced to see what the rookie can bring to the table. Come out of the gate hot, and he likely gets more study time before being thrust into action."
Patra is fairly on the money here, outside of the assertion that there is a lot of pressure on Mendoza. Las Vegas is undergoing a rebuild, and while he will eventually have to prove why he was the No. 1 selection, with Cousins in town, the pressure on Mendoza isn't all that massive, at least not right away.
As for the rest of it, though, Patra seems to have a good grip on things. Whether it is simply a right of passage or Mendoza needing a firmer grip on the concepts of the West Coast offense and playing under center, Cousins will likely start until things don't look all that great for the Raiders.
Yes, Spytek has had a great offseason, but Kubiak and his staff are new, and a lot of moving pieces will be playing key roles for the Las Vegas offense. Things could very easily not look great early on, forcing the Raiders' hand to call Mendoza in from the bullpen and give the team and fanbase a jolt.
Roughly a quarter of the way into the season feels about right for that. That gives Mendoza a few extra weeks to watch and learn, but still allows him to play the majority of the season and learn via trial by fire in a year that is ultimately just a stepping stone, as Las Vegas shouldn't be a contender.
Again, if Mendoza lights it up in the preseason and is the undisputed best quarterback on the roster heading into Week 1, he deserves to start. Kubiak owes that to the rest of the team as well. But if it's close, Mendoza will likely sit in the shadows until Cousins is ready to (or needs to) give up the reins.
To ensure that they are making the right decision, the Raiders would need a solid sample size from Cousins, and enough of the season would still need to be left for Las Vegas to even justify it as a meaningful change. Week 5 feels like a perfect threading of the needle on both fronts.
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