Murphy's law states that anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.
That about sums up the Las Vegas Raiders' 2025 NFL season.
Perhaps the only thing that went right for the franchise was that they landed the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Next April, they'll have full control over the three-day event for the first time in nearly two decades, but it wasn't easy to get there.
As we said, everything went wrong for the Raiders during this campaign, even more so than in previous years. Obviously, that wasn't the plan that owner Mark Davis had in mind last offseason, so let's dive into just how poorly things went and how they got into this position in the first place.
Everything that could go wrong for the Raiders in 2025 did go wrong
Las Vegas kicked off the offseason by whiffing on its top options at both quarterback and head coach. The two most important pieces in the sport. Matthew Stafford chose to re-sign with the Los Angeles Rams for $42 million instead of heading to the Raiders for a $45-$50 million price tag.
Ben Johnson made a fool of the franchise by using them as leverage and never even listening to an offer before taking the head coach job for the Chicago Bears. Of course, he's taken that team from worst to first in the NFC North, so they're already seeing the fruits of their labor.
Missing out on Johnson, in particular, was detrimental, as it led the organization to Pete Carroll. This was an ill-advised decision, as he and John Spytek, admittedly, were not seeing eye-to-eye and had very different approaches to the 2025 season. It was a disaster.
Mostly, or at least in large part, because Carroll led the team to Geno Smith, Brennan Carroll, and a myriad of other has-been former Seattle Seahawks that stunk the place up all season. None of them would have been in Las Vegas without Pete Carroll.
Smith led the league in interceptions and sacks taken, Brennan Carroll's offensive line and run game were both the worst in the NFL, and only Jamal Adams contributed anything positive to the Raiders on a list of players including Tyler Lockett, Stone Forsythe, Jon Rhattigan and Kyu Blu Kely.
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Spytek let several of Las Vegas' premier free agents walk because he had eyes on the future and was hoping that his 11-member rookie class would get extended run. Carroll simply wouldn't oblige, opting instead to play his retread former Seahawks and a slew of underperforming veterans.
We wrote about Carroll's hardheadedness earlier this week, and every report that has surfaced since his firing confirms that he cared more about "his guys" and being right than he did about helping the Raiders build anything that would succeed him. It was, at the end of the day, all about Carroll.
Ashton Jeanty's rookie campaign was derailed by Brennan Carroll's ineptitude, as he took a group that was average last season and turned them into bottom dwellers. Jeanty still had success, but he took far too much of a beating.
Jack Bech sat on the bench for far too much of the season, as did other key rookies like Darien Porter, Charles Grant and Caleb Rogers. These players made the most of their opportunities, but they were few and far between.
Other rookies, like Dont'e Thornton Jr., had their confidence crushed when they got benched unnecessarily instead of being given the chance to grow through their mistakes. Others like Tonka Hemingway and J.J. Pegues just couldn't consistently get on the field despite showing major flashes.
Neither Tommy Mellott nor Cam Miller is still on the roster, and seventh-round linebacker Cody Lindenberg didn't get a single defensive snap this season despite nine blowout losses and the Raiders' linebacker corps leaving plenty to be desired.
To make matters worse, the team was so bad that they had nothing to play for, and when they chose to do the smart thing and shut down Maxx Crosby, they upset their superstar. Now, they have a big decision to make about his future, which was a bridge that never needed to be crossed.
Las Vegas went into the final game of the season knowing that they had the No. 1 overall pick locked up, and it was good, in a way, to end with a win. But it put them into a tie with three other teams, record-wise, so they don't have the top pick in every round. It's minor, but draft slots do matter.
Thankfully, the Raiders and their fan base have plenty to look forward to this offseason, with a young quarterback and a new coach on the way. Plus, three of the last four teams to have the No. 1 pick are in the playoffs this year, all as division winners, so there is hope.
Next year, I'd love to be writing a Yhprum's Law article about how everything that could have gone right, did indeed go right. The Raiders have it all out in front of them this offseason. And things may still go wrong. But hopefully, not everything that can go wrong will go wrong, like in 2025.