Selecting a running back early in the NFL Draft will always invite intense scrutiny, and the Las Vegas Raiders welcomed that in April of 2025 by taking Ashton Jeanty with the No. 6 overall pick. To say that he has fixed a pitiful running game would be a lie, but to say he is to blame is also a misnomer.
And to already say that Jeanty is a bust is simply ludicrous.
But after four games of his sophomore season, the Raiders' young running back is already starting to get that label plastered on him by some analysts and a good portion of fans. The perception is now that, even if he becomes a good player, Jeanty was still a waste of such a high pick, looking back.
Week 4's contest was a low point, as the run game couldn't get going in the loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. It should be recognized, though, that it took a while for Klint Kubiak's run game to click with the Seattle Seahawks in 2025, and it could be the same story for Las Vegas in 2026. Patience!
Now, I'm not here to rewrite history or evaluate John Spytek's decision. I'm here to discredit the lazy and premature notion that Jeanty is a bust. Could he turn into one? Of course. Everyone can, but it is way too early to make such a definitive call on that, especially considering all the factors at play.
Raiders' Ashton Jeanty: The bad
Jeanty's production has been quite poor through two NFL seasons. Despite a massive workload as a rookie, he logged just 975 yards on the ground and five touchdowns, managing only 3.7 yards per attempt. The Raiders' run game was the worst in the league by every metric, across the board.
It is pretty much the same story in 2026, as Jeanty's 78 carries for 264 yards and no touchdowns are simply unimpressive. 66.0 yards per game on the ground and 3.4 yards per rush is not going to get the job done, and Jeanty has no explosive plays either, with his season long being a 19-yard jaunt.
Through four games, his -23.2 EPA, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, is the worst in the league by a solid margin. His 35.9% success rate is 33rd out of 48 qualifying rushers, and his -0.1 yards over expected per attempt is 29th out of 48. That's not exactly tremendous.
To make matters worse, Jeanty hasn't been as elusive this year, with only seven missed tackles forced in the first four games. At this point last year, Jeanty had already forced 22 missed tackles, according to Pro Football Focus. Regression, even in nit-picked stats like this, is never a good thing.
Based on these numbers, it would be quite easy to write Jeanty off as a bust and call it a day. But if we dive a bit deeper, it becomes clear that, while Jeanty is not absolved of blame, the situation that he's in makes it impossible to label him as a complete miss and condemn him completely.
Why Ashton Jeanty is not a bust: The good
Before we even dive into more advanced numbers, let's acknowledge a few things: One, Jeanty is learning a new system, a complicated one at that, and his second in two years. Two, Jeanty is clearly not fully healthy after an ankle injury he suffered in camp; that is glaringly obvious. He said so himself:
"I'm feeling alright. Just got to get back to work and keep rehabbing and keep making it stronger. ... I feel like I'm going to be 100% real soon."
So, he's not 100% right now. Keep that in mind.
His impact as a receiver is also undervalued and not talked about enough. Jeanty caught 55 passes for 346 yards and five touchdowns last year, and he has already caught 19 passes for 165 yards and two touchdowns during the 2026 season, all of which are among the NFL leaders for running backs.
Not to mention, according to NGS, 234 of his 264 rushing yards have come after contact this year, which is the sixth-most in the league. Jeanty is doing the best he can with poor blocking again, as models suggest he should have 269 yards on the year. It's not like he is screwing up so badly.
And his 3.5 expected yards per carry are the fourth-lowest among qualifying NFL backs, so the advanced analytics seem to put more of the onus on the offensive line, or perhaps the play-calling. Jeanty has faced a stacked box 32.1% of the time, which is the fourth-highest rate among RBs.
Between learning a new system, the odds being stacked against him, and Jeanty not even being 100% healthy, it is way, way too early to call him a bust. Anyone doing that needs to have a bit more patience or make an attempt to see the whole picture here.
Yes, drafting a running back so early, one expects them to make the blocking look better and to make something out of nothing more often. Jeanty could certainly be playing better. But let's just take it day-by-day and evaluate things as they come before jumping to massive, indicting conclusions.
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