Raiders' contrarian Fernando Mendoza decision could ultimately be for the best

The cat is out of the bag in Las Vegas: Kirk Cousins will be the Raiders' starting quarterback to begin the 2026 NFL season, not rookie No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza. While differing opinions exist about when Mendoza will usurp Cousins, perhaps him sitting and learning will ultimately be for the best.

If we're calling a spade a spade, Mendoza was never really given a chance to win the battle. That was clearly by design, as Klint Kubiak and John Spytek's comments at the beginning of the offseason on having a young quarterback learn from "an adult" proved to be no bluff. They told fans from the jump.

And while the decision not to start Mendoza is quite contrarian anymore, seeing as every first overall pick quarterback since 2018 has started in Week 1 of their rookie seasons, perhaps the Raiders are doing the right thing. At least this fanbase has to hope so, because what other choice do we have?

So, here's my Devil's-advocate argument for why Las Vegas not starting Mendoza could be the best thing for him and the team, based on recent history. And I know that the Devil doesn't always need an advocate, but someone has to try to rationalize a decision that most of Raider Nation disagrees with.

I guess that'll be me.

Raiders starting Kirk Cousins over Fernando Mendoza could be for the best

On a very basic level, the argument for trotting Cousins out there is sound, and not atypical in the NFL world: this league is a big step up from college, and that is more true at quarterback than at any other position. Insulating Mendoza by letting him sit and learn could aid in his development.

Another element of this is making sure that the team is ready to support Mendoza. Imagine him out there behind the offensive line that the Raiders had last season. How would that have been beneficial for him? Would he have grown at all under those circumstances or just created bad habits?

It's not like Mendoza is player who lacks confidence or has maturity concerns; I fully expect him to have troubles, like all young quarterbacks do, and face them head-on in a way that makes him better. But that does not mean that Las Vegas just has to throw him to the wolves because of that.

Rick Dennison had the offensive line playing well this preseaon, but that has to translate to Week 1 against a first-team defense. And even if the line protects well, what if the receiver corps isn't getting open and they mess up the timing of the offense?

What if the team can't run the ball and the Raiders have to ask Mendoza to put on a Superman cape and carry the team every week? That's a lot to ask of a young player. And while Las Vegas appears to be improved on all of these fronts, that is just on paper. It needs to be showcased when it matters.

One of the worst things that can happen is Mendoza develops bad habits because his supporting cast can't, well, support him. He could start drifting back in the pocket or rely on wonky, unproductive footwork because he doesn't have time to throw.

Maybe he subconsciously stops trusting his receivers because they aren't running routes on time, or Mendoza won't push the ball into tight windows or give them a chance on 50-50 balls because they dropped a few passes this year that led to interceptions or negative plays.

Las Vegas could be much improved, and I think that they are, but it still needs to demonstrate that in a big way, at least for a few weeks before they feel comfortable giving Mendoza the keys to the car. And if Cousins is just out there to be the placeholder, that's tough for him. But he's not the future.

And he's making $20 million for this gig, so it's hard to feel too bad for him, all things considered.

Again, I'd be in favor of Mendoza playing in Week 1; experience can be a great teacher for a young player, too. But the Raiders actually have a plan for the first time in forever, and they're sticking to it. And they should be getting more credit for that methodical approach, which has been sorely missing.

Just because it defies conventional wisdom, though, doesn't mean it's wrong. Let's take a look at how well the recent crop of No. 1 pick quarterbacks have fared after being fed to the piranhas right away in their rookie seasons, and let's determine if Las Vegas is really making some grave mistake.

History doesn't indicate Raiders should choose one route or another with Fernando Mendoza

Everyone knows the success stories with quarterbacks sitting and waiting: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and more recently, Jordan Love and Drake Maye. Countless examples also exist of players starring immediately, like Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott and C.J. Stroud.

No two situations are the same, though, so it's hard to paint with broad strokes here. For the closest comparison that we can make, let's analyze how things have gone for the aforementioned No. 1 pick quarterbacks to start since 2018, of which there are six.

Let's start in 2019 with Kyler Murray.

Murray had a fairly good rookie campaign, other than taking a league-high 48 sacks, and the Arizona Cardinals finished 5-10-1. This was a good building block for a team that ended up making the playoffs two seasons later. But where are Murray and the Cardinals now?

The former is the starting quarterback... of the Minnesota Vikings. And the latter is in quarterback purgatory with Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew and Carson Beck in tow ahead of the 2026 season. Arizona never made the playoffs again with Murray, and they're back to that step before square one.

Now, can you blame the Cardinals' downfall on Murray starting Week 1 of his rookie season? Certainly not. There were a million factors at play. But Murray serves as proof that throwing your rookie signal-caller into the deep end and seeing if he can swim doesn't necessarily lead to sustained success.

Joe Burrow started on opening weekend the next season, and he got pelted during his rookie year. Burrow ended up tearing everything in his knee in Week 11 that campaign, and has endured a career full of injuries and shortcomings in the years since.

Is starting him in Week 1 to blame for the Cincinnati Bengals not ever living up to expectations? Probably not, and they, like the Cardinals, enjoyed some short-term success. Cincinnati went to the Super Bowl in Burrow's second season and were back in the playoffs in Year 3.

But they haven't reached the postseason since 2022, and a lot of that has to do with Burrow failing to stay healthy. Surely, throwing him behind a Bengals line that sparked a never-ending meme didn't do him any favors. Burrow's plight serves as a worst-case scenario for not protecting your young QB.

Trevor Lawrence was thrown into the fire the next year, and the Jacksonville Jaguars were so bad and dysfunctional that they had the No. 1 pick again the following April. Lawrence led the NFL in interceptions as a rookie but quickly turned it around, making the playoffs in his second season.

To continue the pattern we are seeing, though, the Jaguars couldn't sustain that success. They missed the playoffs the last two years before finally becoming a very good team in 2025 under Lawrence's third head coach in five seasons.

Did being out there in Week 1 lead to yearly returns on investment for Jacksonville? If so, I haven't seen that yet. Lawrence was a generational prospect and hasn't even fully emerged as a premier player yet at the position, nor a perennial contender. We'll see if he gets there.

In 2023, Bryce Young started on an abysmal Carolina Panthers team that let him get sacked 62 times. And that did him so much good that by Week 3 of his sophomore campaign, he was getting benched in favor of Andy Dalton (we all remember that game, Raider Nation).

Young finally figured things out once he had a hard reset on the bench and played well at the end of the 2024 campaign. He was able to ride that momentum into the crown jewel of his career, a 2025 season in which he led the 7-9 Panthers to the playoffs on the back of 188 passing yards per game.

Not exactly setting the world on fire there in Carolina, and the front office is apprehensive about paying him big money to be their franchise guy. Young is improving, sure, but again, has he had any notable success in this league?

Cam Ward and Caleb Williams have too small a sample size to properly evaluate, but the previous four players should not exactly be a smoking gun for the Raiders to just put Mendoza into the game immediately. Clearly, it's not a fool-proof plan or a magic potion for success.

If we look at the landscape of NFL quarterbacks who are shining and winning Super Bowls, you notice a theme: Mahomes, who has won three of the last seven championships, sat to begin his career. Other Super Bowl frequenters like Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy sat to start their careers.

Sam Darnold, who won it last year, started in his first nine NFL games and didn't become a great quarterback in this league until he sat on the bench for a few years. Drake Maye, who lost in the Super Bowl last year, didn't start until Week 6 of his rookie season.

And I know what the counterpoint is: Brady sat behind Drew Bledsoe, Mahomes behind Alex Smith and Rodgers behind Brett Favre. These were Pro Bowl-level quarterbacks, at least, and these players weren't the No. 1 picks. They were on teams who were playoff hopefuls.

That obviously changes the equation quite a bit. But Maye seems to have found success despite sitting on a putrid team behind Jacoby Brissett. Purdy sat behind Jimmy Garoppolo, and Hurts behind Carson Wentz. The examples go in every which way and really aren't conclusive.

Raiders fans should keep believing in the long-term plan for Fernando Mendoza

The moral of the story is that there are several ways to peel an orange. And if we believe in Mendoza as a difference-making franchise quarterback, then all roads lead to Rome for him and the Raiders anyway.

But let's not rake Kubiak, Spytek, or Brady over the coals because they're defying conventional wisom by not starting Mendoza. A lot more quarterbacks get ruined or broken than developed in this league anymore, and the Silver and Black are being ultra-careful with their investment.

It took the Raiders a long, long time to get atop the draft board and find a young quarterback worth building around and being excited about. They simply cannot mess up this opportunity. And if the worst thing that they are is patient, deliberate and a bit over cautious, I can live with that.

Even if it's not immediately gratifying to see Cousins play over Mendoza, fans should rather have the latter for 15 years because he was developed properly than cast him off after his rookie deal because we rushed him into the game but, "Hey, at least we got to see him sooner!"

Las Vegas has been so bad for so long that it feels agonizing to be told to wait even more, but you just can't skip steps in this process. Whatever the plan is, the Raiders' brass is sticking to it, even if the fanbase doesn't immediately understand it.

And they should have our trust because they've done nothing thus far to break it.

Obviously, the sooner Mendoza gets out there, the better it is for morale. Raider Nation badly wants to see their young quarterback. But I'd rather have a long fuse with this kind of thing than be ready to scapegoat somebody because the instant results weren't there. There's been enough of that lately.

Letting Mendoza grow deep roots and cultivating an environment around him to thrive is most important, though, even if it takes some time to see the fruits of that labor.

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