A season that once had promise has turned into a mess for the Las Vegas Raiders. The team is once again in the unenviable position of needing a hard reset with a pivot to future building, just as they have been for practically the last two decades.
But with a 74-year-old head coach and a 35-year-old quarterback who they would be happy to jettison, the options don't look bright for a seamless transition into the new iteration of a successful Raiders franchise. Most great organizations have specific foundational cornerstones.
Quarterback, pass rusher and wide receiver are the top three positions that typically create the stability to build the rest of the team around. The Raiders have one-third of that equation in Maxx Crosby. Maybe you could throw Brock Bowers in there as the de facto wide receiver.
But if the Vikings decide to pivot after a disastrous bet on J.J. McCarthy as their quarterback, Las Vegas may be in a position to firmly make that two out of three.
Raiders have the capital to acquire Vikings WR Justin Jefferson
Don't let his down statistical season fool you. Justin Jefferson is still a premier receiver in the NFL. Despite an egregiously bad quarterback situation this year, he is still on pace for 87 catches and 1,132 receiving yards. He is still worthy of the four-year, $140 million contract he signed last year.
The Raiders have a spotty track record, at best, of turning first-round picks into franchise players. Although Las Vegas did not have a first-round pick in 2022 because of the Davante Adams trade, below is a list of the rest of their first-round selections dating back to 2020.
2020 - WR Henry Ruggs III, CB Damon Arnette
2021 - OL Alex Leatherwood
2023 - DL Tyree Wilson
2024 - TE Brock Bowers
2025 - RB Ashton Jeanty
Perhaps Jeanty levels up from a disappointing rookie season. Bowers is a bona fide star already. But beyond that, it's a dreary list. And that list only gets drearier past the first round, as the Silver and Black have failed to find much value on Days 2 or 3 of the draft.
Part of taking the first step towards relevance for the Raiders should be improving the likelihood that their premium assets turn into high-end, stable players. Trading a high pick for a certified superstar like Jefferson would be an easy way to do that.
The Vikings aren't averse to trading a premier wide receiver in the prime of his career. In 2020, they moved on from Stefon Diggs in exchange for a first-round pick that, coincidentally enough, eventually turned into Jefferson.
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If they have decided that J.J. McCarthy is, in fact, not the long-term answer for them at quarterback, they could use Jefferson to secure a better draft position to try once again to find that guy. Jefferson still has three years left on his contract and is owed just $89.75 million in cash the rest of the way.
His total value, including the contractual aspect, I have estimated at $114.25 million. The Raiders are set to pick 2nd overall, and that pick is worth $98 million based on previous research I have done. The difference amounts to a late 4th/early 5th-round pick the Raiders would need to include in the deal.
If Las Vegas determines that the top of the draft doesn't have the right combination of high-end ceiling and reasonable risk profile, they could do a lot worse than providing more ammunition for the offense in the form of one of the best receivers in the game.
It would be turning a single high-end draft pick into a high-end player on a (now) below-market deal. That's an improved outcome over their recent track record, and it would be a way for them to land another star without having to trade Maxx Crosby.
The trade would also have minimal impact on the Raiders' salary cap situation. Jefferson would represent a $25.75 million cap hit in 2026, $30 million in 2027 and $34 million in 2028. The Vikings would take on an extra $7.5 million in addition to the hit Jefferson is set to cost them at this point.
The choice then becomes how Las Vegas plans to fill in the gaps and make the best use of Jefferson. Pairing him with Bowers creates a lethal one-two punch that would contend with almost any other pairing in the NFL.
Whether that pairing is to support a second chance for Geno Smith or Aidan O'Connell, a shot at an external veteran like Mac Jones, or a stab at a later round draft pick remains to be seen. But Jefferson would represent an improving ecosystem.
After outlining what a likely trade could look like, I still think this trade is unlikely for a variety of reasons. On the Vikings' side, they still have a strong core but are just in need of a game-changing quarterback.
As the Colts and Seahawks have shown this year, and the Vikings themselves the year prior have shown, finding that quarterback doesn't require a premium draft pick to reset a franchise quickly. If you believe in your coaching staff, there's a handful of decent veterans who can fit the bill.
And for the Raiders, without a strong plan at quarterback, finding pieces to help that position out doesn't make a ton of sense. Unless general manager John Spytek believes Geno Smith is still the guy going forward, which he shouldn't, then a top-flight receiver is secondary right now.