Things are looking bleak for the Las Vegas Raiders, and it's hard to envision their situation turning around anytime soon, especially with Geno Smith. The veteran quarterback is a large part of the problem and may be running out of time to fix it. However, everyone but him seems to recognize that.
Smith addressed the media ahead of the Raiders' first practice of Week 16. Fans hadn't heard from him since he got hurt in the team's 24-17 loss to the Denver Broncos on Dec. 7. His sense of urgency was palpable, albeit a tad naive and overzealous, to put it softly.
There was a focus on blocking out the noise, overcoming adversity and only worrying about what's in your control while Smith was at the podium. The conversation led to him being asked about the importance of sticking around long enough to see the ongoing rebuild in Las Vegas through.
His response was ostensibly supposed to be a rallying cry to Raider Nation, though he sounded more tone-deaf.
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It's clear Smith's eager to move past the shoulder, hand and back issues that sidelined him for the Raiders' 31-0 defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles. He voiced a desire to get back out there and help the franchise return to prominence, expressing unreasonable confidence in his future with Las Vegas.
"I'm expecting to win a lot of games here," Smith said regarding his desire to be part of the Raiders' presumed resurgence. This declaration comes as they're in contention for this year's No. 1 overall pick with three contests remaining. Talk about a bold take.
Is Smith oblivious to the train wreck that is this rendition of the Raiders and his inaugural campaign with the club? They've been a laughingstock, even by their standards. Yet, he apparently anticipates being on the roster for at least one more season, which really won't happen if Pete Carroll is fired.
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Should Smith be so sure that his position is solidified? Here's how he ranks in the following metrics out of 48 signal-callers with at least 50 dropbacks in 2025:
- Tied for most sacks taken (49)
- Second-highest sack rate (10.6 percent)
- Second-most interceptions (14)
- 40th in adjusted net yards per attempt (4.46)
- 35th in passer rating (84.5)
- 28th in completion percentage over expectation (0.9 percent)
Note: Stats courtesy of Fantasy Points' data suite ($) through Week 15.
The numbers indicate that Smith has been a backup-level contributor, at best. This makes him expendable, especially if the Raiders plan to select his successor this offseason, and there's a notable means to doing so.
Las Vegas can cut Smith after this year at the expense of a less-than-ideal yet palatable $18.5 million cap hit while saving $8 million. Trading him would be even better, leaving behind no dead money and shaving $26.5 million from their 2026 payroll.
Smith has played in 13 games this season, so he has had ample opportunity to "win a lot of games" in Las Vegas. But when your team is sitting at 2-12 with a tough slate of defenses on the horizon to finish the year, Raider Nation is going to have a hard time believing you'll cash any checks you write.