At this time last year, many felt that the 2026 quarterback class would be filled with first-round talent. That wasn't the case, however, as throughout the pre-draft process, only Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson seemed like viable options to be selected on Day 1 after several players returned to college.
The Las Vegas Raiders, of course, selected Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick. Meanwhile, Simpson, who many felt could still be available when Round 2 began, surprisingly landed with the Los Angeles Rams, who held the No. 13 pick and still have MVP quarterback Matthew Stafford on the roster.
As is often the case with first-round quarterbacks from the same class, the two will be compared throughout their professional careers. While many believe that Mendoza was far and away the best prospect in the class, he was recently overlooked in a projection of how their careers will turn out.
The latest Fernando Mendoza projection may be selling the Las Vegas Raiders QB short
The Raiders' front office and coaching staff were all in agreement when it came down to selecting Mendoza with the top pick. Principal owner Mark Davis also made it clear that he is thrilled with the selection, noting that he is excited for the future direction of the franchise.
While everyone in Las Vegas seems to be happy with the decision, Bleacher Report's Brent Sobleski isn't as convinced. He predicted that Simpson would have the most successful career of any quarterback in the 2026 rookie class, with Mendoza coming second on his list.
"The organization may not have done enough from a roster perspective for Mendoza to hit the ground running once he's inserted into the lineup," Sobleski noted. "The Raiders continue to rework their lineup after four straight losing seasons, which included three different coaching changes (and a fourth at the helm now). As such, expectations should be tempered... From an individual standpoint, Mendoza's toughness and poise cannot be questioned after what he accomplished at Indiana. At the same time, the Raiders owned this year's top pick for a reason. His growth as the team's QB1 will take time, possibly multiple years, because the situation isn't nearly as good as it is for another incoming rookie."
It is difficult to argue that Simpson is going to a better situation than Mendoza. After all, as Sobleski pointed out, the Raiders haven't exactly been a pillar of success or consistency, even if everything looks great and promising on paper this offseason.
Meanwhile, the Rams have been great in recent years, and they have the continuity that Las Vegas has lacked. Sean McVay is entering his 10th season in the lead role, making him tied for the second-longest tenured head coach in the entire NFL, and he is one of the league's best.
Similar to Mendoza, Simpson will not be forced into action right away. He will also have the opportunity to sit and learn behind Stafford, who is also one of the league's best. But these two should still have very different trajectories.
Nobody was surprised that Mendoza was taken first overall, while pundits were shocked that Simpson came off the board 12 picks later. The Raiders' rookie was clearly the better player in their respective college careers, as he won the Heisman and led the Indiana Hoosiers to a national title.
That title run included significantly outplaying Simpson in the Rose Bowl. Mendoza also has all the tools that professional teams look for in a rookie quarterback in terms of size, athleticism and pure throwing ability, combined with a great work ethic, whereas Simpson lacks some of those.
While Kubiak has not been tested in a lead role, he was still viewed as one of the league's top play-callers upon his hiring. He also figures to be around for much of Mendoza's career, if not all of it, while there have been rumors about McVay walking away from coaching seemingly every offseason.
Meanwhile, Stafford is likely locked into the Rams' starting job until he is ready to retire, which may not be for another several years. Kirk Cousins, who Las Vegas brought in as a bridge quarterback this offseason, is unlikely to be with the franchise past 2026.
Sobleski believes the presence of McVay and Stafford will be what makes Simpson have the best career of any quarterback in this year's draft class. Mendoza, who was almost unanimously viewed as the better player during the pre-draft process, may be getting overlooked, as there is a real chance he benefits more from his head coach and veteran quarterback combination in the long run.
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