It's been a big offseason in Las Vegas. Whether it was Pete Carroll, Maxx Crosby, or Geno Smith, the team's been making headline-level news non-stop for, like, a month straight. (Don't let anyone tell you winning the offseason isn't worth it.)
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And if it wasn't for the fact that they play in maybe the toughest division in football, they'd be looked at as a team that could make a sneaky run at their division title next year. But that's life in the AFC West. Still, it's felt like an encouraging few months in Vegas, and thanks to The Athletic, now we have the stats – fine, one stat – to back that up.
In a recent 'Best and Worst' style free agency article that recently dropped on their site, the writer (Austin Mock) introduced and explained a projection model he created to try and put a numerical value on which teams did, and didn't, win the offseason. It's PEAK offseason content. It's definitely worth your time, but the short version is that his model "uses a handful of advanced metrics and assigns a value to every player in the NFL," and that we should "think of that value as how much a single player affects the point spread of the expected winning percentage of a single game."
It's a little confusing, but all that matters is who's in first place: your Las Vegas Raiders. According to his model, the Raiders have improved more than any team in football, and over five "xPTS" better than the next best team (the Giants?!). Five xPTS! I'm not sure what it means either, but that's so many.
The Athletic's "NFL Projection Model" loves what the Raiders have done this offseason
"I’m not sure how any list doesn’t include the Raiders at the top, or at the very least inside the top three, after landing Smith. The Raiders roster isn’t ready to compete for a playoff spot, especially in the vaunted AFC West, but they’ve solidified the sport’s most important position with a quarterback who has proven he can give you a solid floor as a league-average QB with the ability for more. And with quarterback (presumably) locked down for the next few seasons, new coach Pete Carroll can focus on acquiring talent to fill out the rest of the roster."
It's great news. Go tell all your Raiders friends that they've got five xPTS on the Giants, and almost 40 xPTS on the Chiefs. And don't both explaining it to them. Where's the fun in that? The Raiders have indisputably won the offseason, and now they've passed both the eye test and the stat nerd test. Maybe the AFC West won't be that hard after all.