No matter how you slice it, the Las Vegas Raiders have a very favorable matchup against the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season. And if veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins can't lead this team to a win or high-level success, it will say a lot about him. In that way, it's the ultimate litmus test.
The Raiders will lean on the ground game with a stud duo of Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. in tow, but Las Vegas will need to get it done through the air as well to keep the Miami defense honest. This is the first time fans will see Cousins play another team's 1s, so some mystery remains.
But the advantages that the Silver and Black have, be they on the coaching staff, experience-wise or in terms of personnel, should be enough to take down the Dolphins. If Cousins can't get it done under these circumstances, it's unlikely that he'll be able to in the gauntlet that the Raiders face this year.
Raiders have every advantage in the book for Kirk Cousins and offense to thrive
Let's start with the most glaring edge that Cousins holds over the Dolphins: he has started 174 games in his NFL career, whereas Miami's entire roster has a combined 608 starts under their belt. They have 14 rookies and 18 undrafted players in the building, and they're the NFL's youngest team.
If a veteran quarterback with 14 years of experience can't play well enough in this game to lead his team to a win, then Cousins has no business being the Raiders' starter. The Dolphins have the worst secondary in the league on paper, so Cousins should have a field day, even without Brock Bowers.
Again, Las Vegas should be able to lean on the run game, so Cousins' job may be even easier, especially if the offensive line can give him time to throw. With only Chop Robinson looking like a threat on Miami's front to get after the passer, Cousins should be in good shape and kept clean.
Not having Bowers is a pretty big blow, and it remains to be seen just how healthy Jeanty is. But let's be honest: everyone can throw to Bowers and have success. Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell and Geno Smith have helped him put up exceptional numbers, so it says more if you can't throw to him.
And with Bowers on the sideline, Cousins doesn't have that crutch, so fans will see just how well he fares. If the Raiders' veteran quarterback still can't find guys like Michael Mayer, Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor, Jack Bech and the running backs, then Klint Kubiak and the staff may have an issue.
Between the glaring disparity in experience, an improved offensive line against an underwhelming Dolphins front, a poor Miami secondary and a strong run game to lean on in front of a home crowd, Cousins has no excuse. If he plays well, fans won't really be impressed, but he'll stave off the heat.
Should Cousins and the offense sputter at all out of the gate, though, then the Fernando Mendoza drums will start beating loudly.
When can Raiders fans expect to see Fernando Mendoza?
The answer to this question seems simple: whenever he is ready. But it's hard to measure such a thing when the young quarterback isn't getting many, if any, reps during the week. So, in reality, it becomes more about how well or how poorly Cousins plays in the early going.
Against Miami, Cousins should have no issues. But even if he does, it feels like there is a very slim chance that the Raiders would make a quarterback change so early. Injuries can always happen, yes, and Mendoza is No. 2 on the depth chart.
Las Vegas' druthers, though, is for the rookie to sit as long as possible. For that to happen, though, Cousins must play well for a sustained amount of time. On the contrary, for Cousins to get benched, he'd have to play well for several games in a row.
From my view, the coaching staff will give Cousins the first month of the season to impress them, and if he doesn't, then the Raiders will start turning the wheels toward Mendoza. Of course, at that point, the team has a brutal stretch in the schedule, but there's no need to insulate him; throw him in the fire.
Predicting when Mendoza will start is tricky, and there are a million factors at play. But Cousins can keep this conversation quiet and his rookie counterpart at bay with a strong showing against a weak Dolphins team and by parlaying that into the first part of the season.
If he can't, some uncomfortable dialogue will quickly follow.
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