The Las Vegas Raiders brought in Chip Kelly this offseason and made him the highest-paid play-caller in the league. It goes without saying that the expectation was for him to take a brutally unproductive group from last season and turn it into a much-improved offense right away.
Thankfully, the bar was low, as the Raiders averaged just 18.2 points per game in 2024, finishing 29th in scoring offense and 27th in total yards. The group has not been much better in 2025, however, as they are averaging just 19.3 points per game, ranking 24th in scoring offense and 18th in total yards.
While the offensive line has received plenty of criticism for their struggles to start the season, last Sunday was a much different story. However, it will take more than just the players on the field improving to get this unit where it wants and needs to be.
Raiders have been predictable on third-and-long leading to struggles
Obviously, a lot of the blame falls on the shoulders of Geno Smith, as he threw three interceptions in a single game for the second time this season. Two of those interceptions came in a situation where one reporter noted Las Vegas has struggled this season.
The Raiders have been among the league's worst teams in third-down situations. Recently, The Athletic's Ted Nguyen noted that much of that comes from their predictability on third-and-long.
"The dropback menu for third-and-long is very small. They are running the same concepts repeatedly in those situations, and the defense has been ready," Nguyen wrote. "Maybe they’ll add to it as the season goes, but they are fairly predictable in these situations. They rank eighth in third-down conversion rate, but they’ve had to rely too much on Smith creating outside of structure. That rate will likely drop unless they add to the playbook."
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Las Vegas will enter Week 5 tied for the eighth-worst third-down conversion rate, 53.8%, in the entire NFL. While Smith has completed 12 of his 20 passes on third-and-long for 171 yards and one touchdown, he has thrown three of his league-leading seven interceptions in such situations.
Smith also threw a fourth interception on third-and-six. Simply put, Kelly has to do a better job of being less predictable in those situations and help out his veteran quarterback.
Las Vegas was just 2-8 on third down in their 25-24 loss to the Bears in Week 4, with two of Smith's three interceptions coming on third-and-long. If they are able to clean up the issue, the offense could look like the unit many expected it to be coming into the season. If not, it'll be another long year.