The way Ashton Jeanty's rookie year with the Las Vegas Raiders is talked about, one would think he survived an apocalypse and only put up 600 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. But the reality is that he totaled 1,321 scrimmage yards and 10 scores as a rookie. No comment on the first thought.
It didn't take a football genius to recognize that something was wrong with the Raiders' offense last year, and that Jeanty, for as productive as he was, paid the price for it. Luckily, everything from this offseason indicates that Chip Kelly and Brennan Carroll's miscues will be undone by Klint Kubiak.
But just one last time, let's re-live the 2025 campaign through the lens of just how bad the situation was around the young Las Vegas star. And then let's shift our minds to how statistically improbable it would be for things to be worse this year under Kubiak.
Stats from Ashton Jeanty's first year with Las Vegas Raiders are simply mind boggling
ESPN's Ben Solak took a deep dive into some advanced analytics of just how bad the Raiders' offense was last season, not just compared to the league, but compared to every NFL team in recent memory. Of course, because it is the peak of the NFL offseason, he did this from a kayak.
"Are we correctly calibrating to just how tough of a season Ashton Jeanty had last year?" Solak wondered. "Since 2010, there have been 512 offensive seasons of football. The 2025 Raiders were 503rd in yards per play, 500th in yards per drive, and 498th in EPA per drive."
Now, that is just abysmal. How can any young player, especially a running back, thrive in such circumstances? Solak noted that, while the Cleveland Browns' offense was technically worse than the Raiders' last year, Las Vegas still turned in a bottom-15 offense in the last 15 years. That's staggering.
Solak was just scratching the surface with that first set of numbers, though.
"Of all the things they were bad at, run-blocking might have been the worst. There have been 777 running back seasons in the last 16 years of at least 100 carries. Ashton Jeanty ranked 774th out of 777 running backs in terms of yards before contact per rush."
Oof. That is the ultimate indictment of Brennan Carroll's offensive line and run game. Now, Solak did note that a low number here can sometimes be the product of a running back playing poorly. But Solak pointed out that the numbers have been low in this regard for Raiders running backs for years.
Las Vegas did make a ton of changes on this front this offseason, though, and Solak acknowledged the big one: Tyler Linderbaum and head coach Klint Kubiak, who is a great teacher and schemer of the outside zone-based run game. Plus, adding a fullback should help pave lanes for Jeanty.
He isn't quite buying, however, that a bunch of "mid-round draft picks" like Charles Grant, Caleb Rogers and Trey Zuhn III are going to help turn things around all that much. Of course, he didn't mention Spencer Burford, nor the return of a healthy Kolton Miller and Jackson Powers-Johnson.
To make matters worse, Solak picked some stats that painted Kubiak's rushing offense with the Seattle Seahawks as below average, which may be upsetting for some of Raider Nation to hear. But fans know what they saw last season in Seattle, and they know things won't be worse in Las Vegas.
Putting a bow on things, Solak conceded that offensive line, scheme, and general offensive situation are better for Jeanty, while pointing out some positive metrics for him, like yards after contact per rush, broken tackles and explosive rush rate.
Solak still isn't buying that Jeanty will have a "big season." But based on the stats that he reeled off, it is hard to imagine things being worse this year. And if he produces more than 1,300 total yards and 10 touchdowns, the Raiders are in a great spot.
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