Since the end of a brutal 2025 NFL season, Las Vegas Raiders fans have been so dialed in on Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza coming to the team in April's draft that some have forgotten that Geno Smith is still under contract next year. And the year after that.
Smith is in the territory that Gardner Minshew was in last offseason, where the writing was so clearly on the wall about his future in Las Vegas that no one conceived of how he could stick around. And fans were right, as the Raiders took a financial penalty and moved on from Minshew after one year.
But what if Smith stuck around next year?
I know, that sounds ridiculous. Smith threw a league-leading 17 interceptions this past season, played the blame game in the media and made obscene gestures toward Raider Nation. He probably wants to leave, too. But The Athletic's Ted Nguyen just outlined a nightmare scenario where he returns.
Ted Nguyen describes why Geno Smith could stay in Las Vegas
The Athletic went through and listed one potential cut candidate for each NFL team earlier this week, and for the Raiders, that player was Alex Cappa. Now, to fans, Smith is the most obvious cut candidate. But Nguyen revealed why he might not be.
"Geno Smith could be a cut candidate too, but new head coach Klint Kubiak said he took the Seattle OC job so that he could work with Smith," Nguyen explained. "So there’s a chance Kubiak would be interested in a reunion with Smith in Vegas and the possibility of using him as a bridge quarterback for Fernando Mendoza."
Call me crazy, but Smith doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who wants to be a bridge quarterback. He only came to Las Vegas so that he could be handed the starting job by Pete Carroll, and nothing about his approach last year indicates that he would be interested in giving up the reins.
Does this mean that the Raiders shouldn't have a veteran quarterback on the roster who can assist Mendoza or provide a solid contingency plan, should an injury or something else nefarious occur? No. But Bleacher Report's Kristopher Knox has a much more realistic or favorable plan.
"Las Vegas is widely expected to take Indiana's Fernando Mendoza first overall in April's draft. The Raiders have a potential bridge QB in Aidan O'Connell, and Smith has a 2026 base salary of $26.5 million."
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And that is the kicker about Smith. It is a tough pill to swallow to pay a bridge quarterback nearly $30 million. The Atlanta Falcons, albeit accidentally, ended up in a similar situation with Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr., and even in a woeful NFC South, they couldn't sneak into the postseason.
Nguyen, however, went on in a separate piece about why he doesn't seem to think Smith returning to the Silver and Black is as crazy as most people do.
"Though Geno Smith is coming off a season in which he played like one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, there aren’t many quarterbacks who could have functioned in last year’s offense. Kubiak said one of the reasons that he joined the Seahawks was for the opportunity to work with Smith. Kubiak could still have faith that he could bring the best out of Smith with a much more quarterback-friendly offense than the one he played in last season. Smith still has the mobility and arm talent to work in this offense.
"Smith has to reduce turnovers, but Darnold was turning the ball over at a similar rate as Smith last season — Smith threw 17 interceptions and Darnold threw 14. However, Darnold was responsible for many more explosive plays, with an explosive pass rate of 17.1 percent (third in the league). Smith’s was 13.8 percent (16th)."
While it is true that the offensive environment in Las Vegas was dreadful last season, and that successes were few and far between, Nguyen doesn't harp enough on the fact that Smith's individual shortcomings were a major contributor to that culture.
He held the ball too long and missed open receivers, took too many sacks, made inaccurate passes when he was on-time, and didn't use his legs nearly enough. No, he isn't to blame for everything, but it seems like revisionist history to simply chalk up Smith's struggles to overall offensive ineptitude.
Being in Las Vegas was not great for Smith's career, and I'm sure that Raider Nation's constant criticism of him online and verbally at games took a mental toll on him. Parting ways is clearly the best option for both sides. Let's wipe the slate clean and get the toxicity out of the building for Mendoza.