Winning football isn't one-dimensional. And if the Las Vegas Raiders believe that the style in which they took down the Miami Dolphins is going to work against every team that they play during the 2026 NFL season, then Klint Kubiak and Co. are in for a very rude awakening.
It's clear that the Raiders intend to lean on star running back Ashton Jeanty and the rushing attack, but if Kirk Cousins can't push the ball downfield, then Las Vegas is in serious trouble. His lack of arm strength was on full display in Week 1, and if nothing changes, this offense will fall flat on its face.
That is, unless the coaching staff is ready sooner than fans think to usher in the Fernando Mendoza era. Sure, the rookie may go through some growing pains, but Cousins, if he doesn't improve, is going to limit the ceiling of this offense. If (or when) that happens, Las Vegas will have to turn to Mendoza.
So, let's dive into the Cousins-related numbers that actually matter from Sunday's contest, how they compare to what he and Kubiak have done in the past, and what they could mean going forward. Then, we'll put a bow on it by explaining how exactly Mendoza is the antidote to this growing issue.
Kirk Cousins' inability to throw downfield limited Raiders' offense in Week 1
To put it succinctly, Cousins had all of his production throwing at or behind the line of scrimmage, and he had no success throwing the ball more than 10 yards in the air. It's typical to see a gradual decline in efficiency when the ball is thrown farther downfield, but for Cousins, things fell off a very steep cliff.
Kirk Cousins on passes of 10 or fewer air yards:
— Levi Dombro (@LeviDombro) September 13, 2026
20-22 for 139 yards and 3 TDs.
Kirk Cousins on passes of 10 or more air yards:
1-7 for 21 yards and 2 INTs.
Certainly not ideal and something to monitor going forward.
Now, to be fair to Cousins, he did not have Brock Bowers, which is an unquantifiable loss, and this is merely a one-game sample size. The obvious counter to that, though, is that it is natural for Cousins' arm to lose strength as he ages, and these numbers continue a downward trend in his career.
Some of you may be wondering: why is this an issue? Can't the Raiders dink and dunk the ball down the field and rely on the rushing attack? After all, Cousins did complete 70% of his passes on Sunday, threw for three touchdowns, and Las Vegas scored 27 points. That's all fine and dandy.
But the Dolphins have one of the worst secondaries and overall rosters in the NFL, and even in this matchup, Cousins struggled at times. He threw two ugly interceptions in the second half when throwing the ball downfield and couldn't open things up beyond 10 yards. Teams will rapidly adjust.
Anyone who watched Sunday's film will stack the box against the Raiders in an attempt to stifle the rushing attack, roll the safeties up, and dare Cousins to beat them with his arm over the top. That already happened in the second half of Week 1, and Las Vegas' rushing attack suffered immediately.
Without the threat of being beat deep, teams can sell out against the run and stop Jeanty, who is the Raiders' greatest weapon at this point. Not being able to complete passes will limit the offense and hurt the productivity of the wide receivers. If the defense isn't kept honest, it opens a can of worms.
Plus, what happens if the Raiders need a throw beyond the sticks on a crucial third down? What if Las Vegas has a penalty and they're facing down-and-long to go? What if the Silver and Black are losing and they have to throw the ball downfield to forge a comeback?
Cousins' performance on opening day should not have inspired Raider Nation to think that he can answer the call in any of these situations. The total yardage numbers aren't as important for Cousins, and it's not like he needs to be Daryle Lamonica. But he has to find completions down the field.
Or else the completions in the short area of the field won't be available. And Las Vegas won't be able to lean on the run. Kubiak acknowledged the Raiders' lack of explosive plays, saying Miami did a good job covering them. He also said that they have to grow in this aspect to open up the whole offense.
So, it's clearly a conversation already in Las Vegas. But a key question that I hope is being asked by someone somewhere at Raiders HQ is this: If Cousins couldn't get it going against a league-worst Dolphins secondary, what makes anyone think that he can against other teams on the schedule?
Kirk Cousins' downfield struggles aren't new (and it's not how he had success with Klint Kubiak in 2021)
Back in 2021, Kubiak was Cousins' offensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings when the former had a career year. But he didn't accomplish all that he did that season by exclusively throwing the ball 10 yards or fewer. In fact, Cousins had a lot of success throwing the ball downfield.
For the sake of a bigger sample size, for 2026, we will include Cousins' preseason stats.
Intermediate Throws (10-19 yards) | 2021 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
% of Attempts | 19.6 | 8.9 |
Completion % | 68.2 | 50.0 |
Touchdowns | 11 | 0 |
Interceptions | 2 | 1 |
PFF Grade | 93.1 | 28.8 |
Deep Throws (20+ yards) | 2021 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
% of Attempts | 12.7 | 8.9 |
Completion % | 46.5 | 0.0 |
Touchdowns | 10 | 0 |
Interceptions | 2 | 1 |
PFF Grade | 96.2 | 28.8 |
Not only is Cousins throwing the ball downfield with less frequency now, but he's doing so with less success. The fact that Kubiak isn't asking him to throw it downfield very much could also say a lot about how he views the veteran quarterback's arm strength at this point in his career.
When it comes to Cousins' accuracy and success throwing within 10 yards, he's at around the same clip that he was in 2021. But he has clearly lost his fastball downfield. Kubiak knows it, and he's insulating him as best as he can, but when push comes to shove, Cousins won't be able to hide.
Maybe Kubiak can continue to find solutions and utilize play action to get the second level of the defense moving. Maybe having Bowers back is the ultimate answer, or the Raiders' wide receivers have not earned enough trust to be targeted in that area of the field. Maybe it's not all Cousins' fault.
His errant throws at that level were obvious, though, and his clear hesitation to unleash could indicate that Cousins doesn't even trust his own arm strength anymore, either.
Fernando Mendoza, for better or for worse, can push the ball downfield for the Raiders
Mendoza may not have quite the grasp on the offense that Cousins does, and perhaps he wouldn't be as efficient in the short area of the field, where snap decisions must be made, and years of experience give a quarterback the confidence to make them.
But if we're being honest, Mendoza's arm has a whole lot more juice in it than Cousins' does. Although he had mixed results targeting that area of the field in the preseason, at least they were mixed, whereas Cousins has struggled exclusively.
And if someone is going to make mistakes by pushing the ball upfield, why not the rookie? From what fans have seen so far, at least Mendoza has a chance to complete them, whereas Cousins' only completion downfield was on a busted coverage that he threw late anyway.
Raider Nation watched Mendoza in preseason rifle throws into tight windows downfield and convert on key downs, despite not having the top pass-catchers or offensive linemen on the field. And he made a living on throws of more than 10 yards throughout his college career, improving every year.
If the Raiders' offense stumbles in the coming weeks because Cousins' inability to effectively throw the ball more than 10 yards has a residual effect on the run game, then Las Vegas simply has to turn to Mendoza. That may not have been the original plan, but the staff must be open to it.
Dinking and dunking only works for so long and against so many teams. Mendoza won't be perfect, but if he just has the gall to throw the ball downfield, then he will keep defenses honest and be exactly what the Silver and Black offense needs. Through mistakes, the good will outweigh the bad.
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