Many expect the Las Vegas Raiders to lose to the Buffalo Bills, but the Silver and Black still have a sliver of hope for an upset.
For this game, FanDuel set the total over/under at 53.5 points, with the Bills favored by a touchdown (-5.5), suggesting a high-scoring matchup, which makes sense given these two bottom-tier defenses.
The Raiders have allowed 34 points per game over the last three weeks, but the Bills, with the 28th-ranked scoring defense, are coming off a 70-minute Monday night overtime battle with the Los Angeles Rams. The Bills could start slowly or be on wobbly legs by the second half.
Raiders won't be pushovers in a high-scoring game at home
Kirk Cousins throws for three touchdowns
Some fans want the Raiders to bench Kirk Cousins and start Fernando Mendoza. They had a glimpse of the rookie quarterback in the fourth quarter of last week's blowout loss to the New England Patriots, but it's still too early to make that change.
Head coach Klint Kubiak reaffirmed that Cousins is the starter, and he's in a good spot to post big numbers in the passing game.
The Bills have allowed 269-plus passing yards and at least three passing touchdowns to Jared Goff, Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford. They've given up 274 yards and two touchdowns to C.J. Stroud. Justin Herbert, who has struggled every week, is the only quarterback who hasn't taken advantage of Buffalo's 31st-ranked pass defense.
Cousins has thrown for three touchdowns in two of five games. He did it against the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers, but the Bills' pass defense ranks worse than those teams' coverage units.
This sounds like a bold prediction, but the projected over/under total makes it seem possible.
Raiders allow 100-plus rushing yards to James Cook
Since Week 1, the Raiders have allowed at least 127 rushing yards in each game and nearly gave up 200 yards to running back Kenneth Walker III. Now, they'll face the Bills' quality offensive line and last season's rushing champion, James Cook.
The Bills' ground game against the Raiders' run defense looks like a significant mismatch in Buffalo's favor.
Moreover, head coach Joe Brady called out Cook for his fumbles.
“At some point there has to be consequences to when we’re putting negative stuff out there,” Brady said. “It’s going to cost us football games and almost cost us one, but we can’t confuse because we won the game that that’s okay. And so it’s got to improve, or the carries are going to decrease.”
Averaging 106.4 rushing yards per game, with four fumbles, Cook has something to prove to Buffalo's coaching staff. He could make a big statement against the Raiders' 29th-ranked run defense.
Ashton Jeanty racks up 100-plus scrimmage yards
Cook may not be the only running back primed for a big game in this matchup. Ashton Jeanty said he's "feeling great," and it's the best he's felt since dealing with ankle and foot injuries.
If so, Jeanty could eclipse 100 scrimmage yards for the third time this season, after doing so against the Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs. Because of the Raiders' subpar wide receiver corps, he's played a big role in the passing game, recording 22 receptions for 215 yards and two touchdowns.
The Bills field a middling run defense, which is 15th in yards allowed, but they're vulnerable to pass-catching running backs. Buffalo has given up at least 44 net receiving yards to running backs in three of five games. Last Monday against the Bills, Kyren Williams and Blake Corum combined for 80 receiving yards.
Jeanty may have a decent outing on the ground, but with 118 receiving yards over the last two games, he should have several receptions that push him over the century mark in scrimmage yards.
Moe Moton writes about the Raiders for Just Blog Baby. You can follow him on Twitter at @MoeMoton.
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