The Las Vegas Raiders have been way more active than usual on the first day of free agency. John Spytek started the day by re-signing Eric Stokes to a great value deal and then promptly writing a blank check for Tyler Linderbaum, signing the stud center to a $27 million per year deal.
Las Vegas' day continued with a potential slight overpay for wide receiver Jalen Nailor, and then another big-money contract for defensive end Kwity Paye. Paye has some loose connections to the Raiders' leadership, but the move was a bit of a head-scratcher.
Especially when NFL insider Jordan Schultz reported that not only were the Silver and Black inking Paye to a three-year deal worth up to $48 million, but that $32 million of that hefty contract is guaranteed. Colts expert Lee Vowell warned the Raiders about paying him this price.
Colts expert isn't exactly jealous that Raiders signed DE Kwity Paye
Vowell, the site expert for FanSided's Horseshoe Heroes, a dedicated Indianapolis Colts page, was recently asked about what a new team would be getting in Paye if they signed him as a free agent. It's safe to say that Indianapolis won't be upset about losing Paye.
"Kwity Paye is the perfect player for a team looking to overpay for an edge rusher who will always come up just short of being interesting," Vowell wrote. "His ceiling appears to be firm at eight sacks, but when those pressures come cannot be counted on. He might be good for a half, and then invisible for a couple of games.
Now, that is a fairly harsh rendition of Paye's abilities. He totaled 30.5 sacks and 50 quarterback hits, as well as 37 tackles for loss in his five years in Indianapolis. It's not like he's a complete zero. But the standards for a former first-round pick are always heightened.
Price is also everything in the NFL. Yes, the Raiders needed to make some moves on the defensive line to fill the void left by the Maxx Crosby trade, but they can't afford to get carried away. It is also safe to say that Vowell believes Las Vegas' money could have been spent much better.
"To be sure, [Paye] isn't a bad player, and he'd be quite the value at $6 million a season," Vowell acknowledged. "But if a team is looking to give him $15 million a season, that is wasted money. He isn't transformative, doesn't excel at any part of the game, and even in what should have been pass-rush-friendly Lou Anarumo's system, he dipped in form. Fans of a team adding him should be prepared for Paye to be a cap casualty in about two seasons."
RELATED: Raiders just leaned on loose connections with surprising Kwity Paye signing
To ensure that we are being fair to Paye and not just taking someone else's word for it, let's take a look at his recent production: He recorded just 4.0 sacks last season, his lowest total since his rookie season, despite playing a career-high in snaps and pass-rush opportunities.
He did record a total of 38 pressures, which isn't nothing, but you'd like to see a $16 million edge rusher get home a bit more often than Paye did last season. His pass-rush win rate was 10.7% in 2025, according to Pro Football Focus, which isn't bad, but certainly nothing to write home about.
However, ESPN had Paye's pass-rush win rate at a much lower 4.5%. That was actually the lowest among qualifying edge rushers last season, which is a startling stat, especially given the investment that Las Vegas just made in him.
Paye is a solid enough run defender, but definitely nothing special in that realm. He missed a career-high six tackles last season and recorded a career-low in run stops. This signing would look much better on paper if Paye were bought low, but he was signed to a lucrative deal.
Yes, Paye is a talented player, as evidenced by the fact that he was a first-round pick back in 2021. But he hasn't been able to put it all together yet at the NFL level, with his career-high in sacks being 8.5. Again, that isn't nothing, but it's not worth $16 million per year.
Perhaps Paye is a great fit in Rob Leonard's defense, and he finally reaches his ceiling as an edge rusher. The tools are certainly there. But as it stands now, Paye looks like an overpay. Hopefully, he's not the cap casualty in a few years that Vowell believes he will be.