At the NFL Combine in late-February, Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider said he expected Geno Smith to be the team's quarterback in 2025 when asked directly. On March 7, in shocking fashion, the Las Vegas Raiders acquired Smith for a third-round pick.
Tom Pelissero of NFL Network reported Smith turned down an offer from the Seahawks similar to what they gave Sam Darnold (which is not as good as first reported). Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times reported the Seahawks offered Smith a two-year deal in the $40-$45 million per year range but got no counter offer.
So as time passed and the Raiders did not get a contract extension done with Smith, it became easy to speculate about why. Then on Thursday, news came of a two-year, $75 million contract extension tacked on to the final year of Smith's original deal. Incentives can push the deal to the $85.5 million some reports had, and Smith is reportedly getting $66.5 million in guaranteed money.
Contract details show Raiders QB Geno Smith wanted to reunite with Pete Carroll more than anything
At first glance, as Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk noted, Smith's practical three-year, $106 million total deal (including this year) did not look much better than the three-year, $100.5 million deal Seattle gave Darnold. Smith certainly did not get the $40 million per year he was supposedly seeking from the Seahawks.
Florio subsequently shared finer details of Smith's contract with the Raiders.
"Per a source with knowledge of the terms, Smith’s 2025 compensation increased from $31 million to $40 million."
"In 2026, Smith has a base salary of $26.5 million. Of that amount, $18.5 million is fully guaranteed at signing. The remaining $8 million is guaranteed for injury; it becomes fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2026 league year."
"In 2027, Smith is due to make a non-guaranteed salary of $39.5 million. The deal includes $3.5 million each year in incentives, for a maximum payout of $116.5 million.
"The third year is an obvious team-held option. If they keep him beyond 2025, it’s a two-year, $66.5 million contract with 2027 TBD."
The sum total of Smith's guarantees at signing is $58.5 million. It's fair to assume Smith would hesitate to play for $18.5 million, or $26.5 million after the third day of the league year, in 2026. So as as practical matter, and as Florio further noted, the Raiders are not firmly committed to Smith past one year and $40 million. Some dead money would presumably be in play for 2026 if they cut or traded him.
Smith resurrected his career as the Seahawks' starter under Pete Carroll. He would not be the Raiders' quarterback unless Carroll wanted him, and the two had/have a strong relationship.
Smith surely could have gotten a deal similar to the one Darnold got from the Seahawks. But an easily assumed layer was in play as Smith apparently asked the Seahawks for a trade when contract talks weren't going well, and Florio confirmed it.
"Per a source with knowledge of the situation, Smith wanted to reunite with coach Pete Carroll."
The opportunity to reunite with Carroll, such as it became an increasing possibility and Carroll wanted it too, was the driving force for Smith becoming a Raider--as expected. An unequivocal multi-year commitment in a new contract certainly wasn't it, but sometimes intangible things (which should not be discounted) take priority over everything else.