The Las Vegas Raiders' 2026 season is less about wins and losses and more about seeing if No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza is going to show some of the signs that he is going to be the quarterback who drags this team out of the depths they find themselves in.
While Raiders fans are understandably getting very excited about their highest-drafted players in almost 20 years, some outlets are reminding Raider Nation that Mendoza is still a rookie and is likely to experience some major ups and downs in 2026.
ESPN's Jordan Reid believes that in his rookie year, Mendoza will throw for 15 touchdowns and run for two more, but throw 10 interceptions. Fans might understandably be disappointed if that is all the production they get from a No. 1 pick, but they did include a more positive caveat in there as well.
Reid said that in five years' time, Mendoza could end up leading the NFL in passing yards due to how wide open Klint Kubiak's passing game is and how well Mendoza's natural arm talent could fit in. Even if 2026 is a learning experience, better days may be here if they end up developing him well.
ESPN predicts up-and-down rookie season for Raiders' Fernando Mendoza
Mendoza is not a perfect prospect, as he will come from an Indiana scheme that didn't ask him to do as much pre-snap as many other top prospects, and he can struggle when pressured in the pocket. Mendoza also has to deal with a roster that was immolated by Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly last year.
On top of the fact that the wide receiver room may rank among the worst in the NFL following Las Vegas' decision not to invest a premium pick in the 2026 NFL Draft at that position, the offensive line outside of their hefty investment in Tyler Linderbaum and Kolton Millers remains a question mark.
The ingredients for success are there, however. Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty profile as high-end performers at their respective positons (especially the already elite Bowers), and the offensive line should be much improved from the turnstiles that got Geno Smith pounded to paste.
Mendoza coming off a year in which he led an undefeated team to a national championship and won the Heisman is sure to get the hype train out of control, and Reid is one of many reminding Raiders fans that it will take some time for Mendoza to reach his full potential.
But he'll get there.
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