Three times during their current four-game losing streak, the Las Vegas Raiders have been put behind the 8-Ball by the performance of their quarterback. No single person is to blame for Geno Smith's eight interceptions in those three games, or his league-high nine interceptions this season, though plenty of accountability has been flimsily nudged away from the quarterback.
Even though they all land on his stat line, a quarterback is not always at fault for the interceptions he throws. Tipped balls, a receiver running the wrong route or a defender simply making a great play all come into the equation. It's not a perfect science, but advanced data has helped uncover some of those nuances.
Smith's career renaissance with the Seattle Seahawks, including two seasons with Pete Carroll as his head coach there, is starting to look like an anomaly. Last season, when Carroll was gone, Smith threw 15 interceptions, which was the third-most in the league.
Deeper data spotlights how Geno Smith has regressed this year
Smith is clearly not as sharp this season in Las Vegas as he was during the peak of his time in Seattle. He would tell you that, and the eye test depicts it clearly.
On this week's episode of the Just Win Podcast, Ted Nguyen of The Athletic dove into some of the statistical reasons why the Raiders' signal caller has regressed so much through five games, and it is rather eye-opening.
“The pushback for Geno Smith seemed to come from the time that he played with the Jets. And he was a very bad quarterback for the Jets. But he was a completely different quarterback with the Seahawks, and what he’s doing now doesn’t change what he was with the Seahawks," Nguyen said. "It’s kind of crazy the drop off that has happened from that Geno Smith into the Geno Smith that we’re seeing now. He was legitimately one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league when he was playing for the Seahawks. He was fourth in completion percentage over expected during his time at Seattle.”
This echoes the sentiment of Raider Nation, as fans simply can't believe how different Smith looks now compared to the last few years. This leaves the fan base feeling like the franchise is cursed, and players will always play their worst while wearing the Silver and Black.
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Nguyen then went into some specific numbers that reflect Smith's regression so far this season, but they also paint an obvious picture of where he can improve.
"His off-target rate was only 6.9, which was among the lowest in the league, and it jumped up to 9.2%, almost a 30% increase in off-target percentage, which was, I think, the strangest regression as far as looking at Geno Smith. … How his accuracy has been affected," Nguyen said.
Smith has always had a strong arm and been ultra-confident in his ability to fit passes into tight windows as a result. However, with his accuracy plummeting, he can't make the same throws that he used to, which is leading to interceptions.
“As far as the turnovers, he had 15 turnovers, interceptions in 2024. But a lot of it was unlucky, tip passes, things like that," Nguyen said. "We know that because his turnover-worthy play percentage was 2.6%. That means he was only putting the ball in harm’s way 2.6% of the time, and he got unlucky in those times, and it became interceptions. But 2.6% ranks in the bottom of the league. ... That (has) doubled this year. ... It’s at 5.2 percent. ... So he is putting the ball in harm’s way."
This issue boils down to Smith's poor decision-making or offensive coordinator Chip Kelly not dialing up open looks for his quarterback. Obviously, Smith is the one who makes the reads and throws, but Kelly has to adjust the offense so that the quarterback does not have so much liberty.
"The first interception against the Colts was unlucky. That second one, Dont’e Thornton ran a really crappy route, but that ball should not have been thrown based on the coverage," Nguyen said. "So he needs to play better, bottom line, and that’s my final defense of Geno Smith until he plays better. I just don’t like that people are taking the way that he’s playing now and just saying, ‘We told you so.'”
According to Pro Football Focus, entering Week 6, Smith is tied for the most turnover-worthy plays when under pressure with five. His five turnover-worthy plays from a clean pocket are tied for second-most. While the Raiders' offensive line has not always protected him well, that has not mattered in terms of how he's putting the ball in harm's way.
Smith has been less accurate so far this season, and for whatever reason, he's making riskier throws more often. That's an obvious recipe to throw interceptions at a higher rate, and unlike last season, it's not due to being unlucky.
He has dramatically regressed in several key aspects of playing the quarterback position, and the Raiders need their veteran signal-caller to pick things up. Otherwise, he'll almost certainly be supplanted by a young player before this time next year.