It was just over a year ago that the Las Vegas Raiders went up to New England and took down the Patriots in a triumphant bad-weather game to kick off the Pete Carroll era with a bang. And while Klint Kubiak's victory over the Miami Dolphins wasn't the same thing, last year is certainly a cautionary tale.
Let's not overreact to Week 1 of the NFL season; it is notoriously a liar.
Last year, the Raiders lost 14 of their next 15 games. By contrast, the Patriots went on to win the AFC. The Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks lost in Week 1, and the Denver Broncos, who were the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, barely snuck by the lowly Tennessee Titans at home.
The Houston Texans lost, as did the Chicago Bears. The New York Jets took the Pittsburgh Steelers down to the wire, and the Washington Commanders won, as did the Arizona Cardinals. Simply put, opening weekend isn't always the greatest barometer for season-long success.
So, Raider Nation, you are right to be optimistic and hopeful. But last year's brutal reality check and dramatic fall from grace were the ultimate lesson not to anoint anyone or anything just yet.
Raiders fans shouldn't get overzealous with expectations after Week 1
Against the Patriots, Geno Smith looked like the Raiders' best quarterback since Rich Gannon. Dont'e Thornton Jr. was one of the team's leading receivers, and Devin White, Germaine Pratt and Jamal Adams looked like a lethal linebacker trio. Tyree Wilson was active, while Eric Stokes struggled.
The fans who expected all of that to continue were quickly disenchanted or proven wrong. It is so incredibly easy to overreact to Week 1 because of its magnitude, but the sample size is just too small to draw any real conclusions or see any legitimate trends.
So, take last year as a cautionary tale: be optimistic in 2026 rather than expectant. Hopeful, but not necessarily anticipatory.
Las Vegas played a very good game against the Dolphins, but it was far from a perfect performance. And while winning by two scores is always a good thing, and what they should have done, it's hard to deny the fact that the Raiders did not play as well, at least offensively, in the second half of the game.
And no offense to Miami, but many believe that they'll be the worst team in football this year. They are a team built to lose football games during the 2026 NFL season, so the Silver and Black emerging victorious was not necessarily a stunner or an indication that Las Vegas is better than people think.
Plus, the Raiders' offense could have limitations going forward if Kirk Cousins can't have success throwing the ball downfield. That was already evident in the second half of the matchup against the Dolphins, and things certainly don't get any easier for Las Vegas going forward.
The defense was quite stout in Rob Leonard's debut, but it was not without lapses. It stands to reason that a better opponent may punish the Raiders a bit more for their breakdowns in coverage or failure to get home quickly, even if Las Vegas ended up with a lot of pressures and sacks in a general sense.
It's also not every week that the Raiders will be able to give up a massive kick return deep into their own territory and the opponent doesn't come away with points. This article isn't meant to tear Las Vegas down; Kubiak and Co. played a very good game that they should be proud of.
And again, optimism should be high. But expectations still need to be tempered, as Raider Nation has been let down and prematurely overbilled its team too many times before. We know better, and there is nothing wrong with having the team exceed expectations. To me, it's better than being let down.
Reasons Raiders fans should feel very confident coming out of Week 1
One big reason to feel irrationally confident after Week 1? The Raiders didn't even have Brock Bowers out there. He is the centerpiece of the offense, and he opens up so much for Cousins and the rest of the pass-catchers that it can't really be measured. Las Vegas scored 27 without him.
So, while the Raiders' future opponents may be better, Las Vegas should be better in the future as well. And with such a young team and a new coaching staff full of teachers, development is expected. The new coaches should also hone their craft as the year goes along. That's a lot to look forward to.
Oh, and I have confidence in the fact that Fernando Mendoza can operate this offense at a higher level than Kirk Cousins. So, when the keys are inevitably handed to Mendoza at some point in the campaign, the Silver and Black should be even better. At least I hope so.
Again, this isn't meant to poo-poo what the Raiders accomplished in Week 1. Winning is hard in the NFL, no matter who is on the schedule. But before we start expecting a lot from this team, let's just have optimism. Expectations create pressure and lead to letdowns. Optimism is fun.
And this is all supposed to be fun!
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