The Las Vegas Raiders, as weird as it sounds, are actually in a prime position. Yes, they're 2-11 thus far during the 2025 NFL season, and they've barely been competitive in most games. But the team has an incredibly bright future if they play their cards right.
Not only do the Raiders potentially have the most salary cap space available in the league over the next three seasons, but they also control their own destiny to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Plus, they've got a handful of elite young players to build around.
If things continue to trend down in the final quarter of the season, then Pete Carroll will almost certainly be fired. A new head coach, then, could theoretically walk into Las Vegas with the No. 1 pick, up to $146 million in cap space, and players like Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty and Maxx Crosby.
Raiders fans are expecting team to blow its chances for No. 1 pick
However, things never quite pan out the way they should for the Silver and Black, or at least the way that Raider Nation hopes. Bleacher Report's Brad Gagnon went through each NFL team's "nightmare scenario" for the rest of the year, and it is all too familiar for Las Vegas.
"Geno Smith returns from injury and plays just well enough to steal another win or two, knocking the Raiders out of the race for the No. 1 pick and tempting them to consider rolling into 2026 with a quarterback who's simply a waste of time," Gagnon wrote.
Yeah, Raiders fans have seen this play out before. Smith coming back next year is probably a non-starter regardless, but just last season, when Las Vegas was in a position to secure a top-2 pick in last April's draft, they reeled off two wins in the final three weeks, dropping them to the No. 6 pick.
The year prior, the team was down in the dumps, but they got a spark from interim head coach Antonio Pierce. Instead of landing near the top of the draft board, they nearly went .500, beating the Denver Broncos in Week 18. Of course, that win affected the team's draft position greatly.
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Denver was one of six teams that landed a franchise quarterback in that draft, as they took Bo Nix at pick No. 12. The Raiders got a bit lucky as Brock Bowers fell to them with pick No. 13. Still, Las Vegas wishes it already had its quarterback of the future, as five other teams from that draft do.
Luckily for the Raiders, their rest-of-season schedule is quite daunting. They'll travel to take on the Philadelphia Eagles and Houston Texans the next two weeks, which are pretty much sure losses, before returning home to play the New York Giants and Kansas City Chiefs.
Beating the Giants is certainly feasible, as they, too, are 2-11. But they are a much, much better team than Las Vegas is, so they shouldn't have an issue either. Raiders fans are rightfully worried, however, that if the Chiefs are eliminated, they'll roll with Gardner Minshew under center in the season finale.
That provides Las Vegas with two legitimate chances to win near the end of the season, which would, of course, affect nothing other than the team's draft position and mean nothing other than that the Raiders are probably a step or two further away from landing a true difference-maker under center.
In a way, this Las Vegas team has been so bad this year that there is little doubt that they'll find a way to lose each of their remaining games. But the Raiders always find a way to screw themselves, and until things play out differently, this nightmare scenario will be in the back of fans' minds.