It is quite easy for Las Vegas Raiders fans to get excited about Fernando Mendoza, and for those around the league to see his potential. But when it comes to expectations about how his rookie campaign will go, no consensus can be reached because of how much uncertainty there is.
With Kirk Cousins in the building and both him and Aidan O'Connell playing well at OTAs, the Raiders may not start their rookie quarterback at all during the 2026 NFL season. But leadership has said the best player will play, and many believe that is Mendoza. It really is anyone's ball game in Las Vegas.
This has, of course, thrown a wrench into the prediction market for Mendoza's inaugural campaign. Nobody knows what to expect, and projections have understandably been on the low side. But there has been a recent uptick in the hype for Mendoza to bring home a coveted NFL award in Year 1.
Las Vegas Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza starting to see name in OROY conversations
Arizona Cardinals running back Jeremiyah Love is the current favorite for the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year award, as Ashton Jeanty was a year ago. But Sports Illustrated's Matt Verderame outlined why Mendoza is the one legitimate challenger for Love in trying to earn the coveted honor.
"Although Love is the odds-on favorite, Mendoza has the advantage of playing the sport’s paramount position. And while he might start the season sitting behind Kirk Cousins, there’s a good chance he’ll see a majority of the action for the rebuilding Raiders.
"After two middling seasons with Cal, Mendoza transferred to Indiana and won the Heisman, completing an undefeated season to win a national championship. He threw a nation-high 41 touchdowns against six interceptions. The No. 1 pick has weapons to work with in second-year back Ashton Jeanty and All-Pro tight end Brock Bowers. Then there’s the presence of Klint Kubiak as coach after the 39-year-old helped lead the Seahawks to a Super Bowl.Â
"Finally, don’t sleep on Mendoza putting up hefty stats as Las Vegas is probably going to be trailing plenty in the second halves of games. The Raiders spent lavishly in free agency, including on linebackers Nakobe Dean and Quay Walker, but they’ll need to make tremendous strides after ranking 25th in points allowed a year ago."
Raider Nation knows that things seem to be set up fairly well for their young signal-caller whenever he is handed the keys. And if Verderame's prediction that he sees a majority of the action for Las Vegas comes ture, then it shouldn't be long until Mendoza is the frontrunner.
Bleacher Report's Moe Moton also included Mendoza on his list of seven players most likely to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. And while he noted that the expectation is for Cousins to start, Moton went into how Mendoza is progressing thus far and why he could star early.
"Mendoza could take over for Cousins at some point if the veteran quarterback struggles or the team falls out of playoff contention early in the campaign. If the Raiders' passing attack has a slow start, Kubiak would have nothing to lose and likely insert his rookie signal-caller for a spark.Â
"Of course, Mendoza must demonstrate command of Kubiak's offense. Thus far, he's on the right track.
"On a Bleacher Report show, NFL insider James Palmer said Mendoza has "wowed" the Raiders at OTAs.
"By the end of the summer, Mendoza could be in a tight battle with Cousins. After leading Indiana to a national title and winning the 2025 Heisman Trophy, Mendoza has tremendous potential. With an accurate arm (68.6 completion rate) and big-game experience, he could flash early in regular-season action.'
Well, fans of the Silver and Black certainly hope so. Obviously, winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award is not the ultimate goal, nor the sign of a great player. Many rookies have peaked early and amounted to nothing in their NFL careers. The long-term plan and big picture are still most important.
But a Raider hasn't won this award since Marcus Allen did in 1982, and it's been since 1998 when Charles Woodson won it that any Raider has won any kind of rookie of the year award. It would be exciting and gratifying to have Mendoza win it, and it would be a great harbinger of the future.
And it seems like analysts are starting to come around to the fact that, even if he doesn't start right away, he could still easily bring home the award.
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