In a way, every move that an NFL team makes can be categorized as a "gamble." Betting on players like Josh Allen or Myles Garrett to be great year in and year out feels like a sure thing, yes, but the league is full of hidden obstacles and unpredictability. The Las Vegas Raiders are not immune to this.
This offseason, the Raiders made their share of high-end investments in veteran talent on the free agent market, including a record-setting deal for Tyler Linderbaum, a lucrative, albeit clever pact with Kirk Cousins, and a handful of other big-ticket signings like Kwity Paye, Quay Walker and Jalen Nailor.
Oh, and they have a brand-new head coach and a defensive coordinator who has never called plays.
They also mortgaged the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft on a young QB and are counting on several rookies to either start or play key roles right away. There is a lot of uncertainty and risk with this young Las Vegas roster, but a recently named one certainly isn't the biggest, nor is it a concern at all.
Las Vegas Raiders' "gamble" on Kirk Cousins isn't a gamble at all
FanSided.com's Jake Beckman recently named the biggest gamble that every NFL team is making ahead of the 2026 NFL season. For the Raiders, that gamble wasn't really even a gamble, and if it is, then the Silver and Black have massively hedged their bets and covered their bases.
"Biggest gamble:Â Counting on Kirk Cousins to stay healthy
"Fernando Mendoza should not start an NFL game in his rookie season. If everything goes perfectly, Kirk Cousins will be on the field for every non-garbage time and non-meaningless snap in 2026. That way, Mendoza can sit back and soak up as much as he can.
"However, Cousins hasn’t played a full season in the past three years. Some of that is due to injury, and some of that is due to performance.Â
"In some sports, you can throw a stinky guy on the field to get through the season, and it’ll be fine. But in the NFL, guys are putting their careers on the line with every snap they play (that might be sensationalizing a little bit, but it’s more or less true).
"If the guys on the team are seeing Cousins struggle during games and Mendoza tearing it up during practice, there are going to be issues in the locker room, and people will want Mendoza to start before he should.
"All that to say, a 37-year-old Cousins doesn’t need to just be healthy for a whole season, but he also has to not be terrible. That seems like something that should be easy, but this is a guy who the Falcons thought was worse than Michael Penix for the past two seasons ... It’s not an absolute given."
Let's be clear about a few things: One, Cousins doesn't exactly have some sinister injury history, outside of the Achilles' tear he suffered in 2023. He has largely been a healthy player in his NFL career, and advanced analysis doesn't categorize him as some injury-prone veteran, either.
Second, and perhaps more importantly, the Raiders aren't even gambling on Cousins being healthy; it's not like he's the only quarterback on the roster. Las Vegas retained Aidan O'Connell from last year's squad, and oh, yeah, that Fernando Mendoza guy looms pretty large in the building.
In a worst-case scenario, Cousins gets hurt in the early going, or as Beckman also asserts, he plays horribly.
So what?
Mendoza is waiting in the wings and can learn from experience earlier in his NFL career than he may have otherwise. Or O'Connell gets a shot because the Raiders have a specific process they are following with Mendoza, and they don't want to baptize him in the league earlier than they planned.
Outside of an injury not being a good thing for Cousins personally, what would be the big deal? It's not like Las Vegas is all-in on winning a Super Bowl in 2026, and the contending window is going to close if Cousins doesn't play in every game and massively deliver. So, again, what's the big deal?
Nobody wants Cousins to go down or play poorly, and it would be tragic or sad if he did. But on a team with question marks throughout the roster and coaching staff, it stands as a bit surprising that the biggest perceived gamble for the Raiders is the one they've hedged their bets on the most.
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