On the one hand, constant change has been the Las Vegas Raiders' Achilles heel for decades now. On the other hand, however, considering the way things have panned out during the 2025 NFL season, another offseason of significant changes may be in order.
Whereas general manager John Spytek's job is safe, in part due to his kinship with minority owner Tom Brady, but also because he seemingly drafted a good rookie class and made a handful of other strong moves, head coach Pete Carroll is on thin ice with owner Mark Davis.
There is a growing sentiment that Carroll will not survive this campaign in Las Vegas, and a handful of meaningless wins in the coming weeks should not dramatically change that equation. Carroll's departure would also have a significant ripple effect for the players he had a hand in bringing in.
Raiders may play the Grinch and soon part ways with Geno Smith
Guys like Stone Forsythe, Jamal Adams, Tyler Lockett and Jon Rhattigan would all likely be on the chopping block, and so would starting quarterback Geno Smith. Yes, there would be a penalty for parting ways with him, but if Carroll is gone, there is almost no chance Smith survives a regime shift.
Firing Carroll would be a not-so-jolly holiday surprise for Carroll himself, but it would also be disastrous for the former Seattle Seahawks players he brought to Las Vegas, notably Smith. Smith's contract is large, but actually fairly team-friendly, and there is an out that makes things stomachable.
By releasing Smith before or after June 1, the Raiders would take on a dead cap hit of $18.5 million in 2026. That means they'll have $18.5 million of their cap space unavailable for signing other players. Essentially, they'd take that penalty just to have Smith off the team.
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However, his original cap hit was set to be $26.5 million next season, so Las Vegas would save $8 million that they could spend on other players next year. That is a significant chunk of cap space, and could easily be used to sign two starting-level players.
Now, is Smith going to get cut or traded during the holiday season? Absolutely not. The trade deadline has passed, and the 2026 league year has not begun. But if Carroll does indeed get fired soon, as most reports indicate he will, then Smith will be able to clearly see the writing on the wall.
Smith may be able to find a backup role somewhere, but after the campaign he's put together with a league-high 15 interceptions, he'd be hard-pressed to find a starting gig. That slippery slope for him may commence on Black Monday if Carroll gets the call from Mark Davis that most believe is coming.