The Las Vegas Raiders have enjoyed an undeniably strong offseason. What started with the firing of Pete Carroll and subsequent hiring of Klint Kubiak has blossomed into the additions of Tyler Linderbaum, Jalen Nailor, Nakobe Dean, Quay Walker, Kwity Paye and more.
Losing and then adding Maxx Crosby back into the equation certainly tilted the Raiders' offseason on its axis, but even in the face of that chaos, Las Vegas' roster has gotten stronger throughout. Are they a finished product? Not even close. But the consensus is that this team is much-improved.
Raider Nation shouldn't have Super Bowl aspirations this year, and even the playoffs seem like a bit of a stretch right now. But as the offseason has chugged along, the Silver and Black have gotten better every step of the way. But it's not enough to move the needle for Las Vegas' total win projection.
Raiders' win total projection doesn't rise a bit after free agency
ESPN's Matt Bowen and Pamela Maldonado recently wrote a piece about which teams got better and worse during free agency. The Raiders, obviously, got better in their view, but their moves didn't exactly move the needle when it came to betting lines or projections.
When the odds from DraftKings Sportsbook opened on February 19, the Raiders' win total was set at 5.5 (O +115, U -140), and their Super Bowl odds were 180-1. Ahead of free agency, on March 8, Las Vegas' win total was still 5.5 (O +130/U -160), and their Super Bowl odds dropped to 200-1.
Not much happened between February 19 and March 8, outside of the Crosby trade. But on March 9, the floodgates opened, as the Raiders made all of the aforementioned moves, re-signed Eric Stokes and Malcolm Koonce, and made a myriad of other depth signings. But nothing shifted for Las Vegas.
Their odds moved a tiny bit, but their win total prediction remained at 5.5 (O -130/U +110) and their Super Bowl odds barely rose to 160-1. For such vast improvements, one would think that the betting lines would shift a bit more. But the oddsmakers weren't moved by the Raiders' recent acquisitions.
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Apparently, even though Las Vegas was widely regarded as an offseason winner and even heralded as an improved team by ESPN in the aforementioned piece, folks still don't believe in the Silver and Black. NFL.com only had them rising one spot to No. 29 in their post-free agency power rankings.
"If all that comes from the failed Maxx Crosby trade is that the edge menace comes back and is re-energized for the only franchise he’s ever played for, then it’s hard to say the Raiders have lost in this ordeal. I have the feeling they were thrilled to get two first-rounders initially, though, so they’ll have less ammunition to continue a very big rebuild. There are promising higher-end pieces in place, and the likely selection of Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick next month gives some hope at the most important position. They’ll need another receiver and OL help on offense, and the defense could use some more bulk up front and talent in the secondary. This is no quick fix, but I am fairly encouraged by the early stages of the offseason."
Essentially, the Raiders only leapfrogged the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins, both of whom are already seemingly trying to tank their 2026 seasons in anticipation of a supposed generational class of quarterbacks in 2027. Las Vegas shouldn't even be in the conversation with either one of them.
They also got jumped over by the Cleveland Browns, who did what exactly in free agency other than overpay middling offensive linemen? They're behind the Tennessee Titans, who made some fireworks but don't have nearly the same level of talent, and the New York Giants, who didn't exactly add a ton.
The Raiders, as always, are going to have to prove that this year is different. It's frustrating to see so much change, and yet so little, but it is also understandable. Las Vegas has been a letdown every year that fans can remember, and it will carry that title until it shows that it is not the same old team.
My advice: Buy your stock on the Silver and Black early. The positivity around the Raiders' offseason moves isn't translating into people being believers in them, but when they eventually turn things around, fans can look back on this set of moves as the "I told you so" moment.