Amid all of their poor decisions, losses, shortcomings and letdowns during the 2025 NFL season, the Las Vegas Raiders are still in control of their own destiny. Not to the playoffs or the No. 1 seed in the postseason, but to the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
At 2-13, their disappointing season certainly has them positioned for the elusive selection. The only problem is that things are crowded at the bottom of the standings, and therefore, the top of the draft board. The final two weeks of the campaign will be incredibly pivotal and will shake things up a lot.
The 2-13 New York Giants are the first opponent on the schedule for Las Vegas, and then the 6-9 Kansas City Chiefs, who are on their third-string quarterback and just placed a handful of their key players on the Injured Reserve, are the last team standing in the way of the Raiders and the top pick.
Raiders' Week 17 guide is incredibly simple, but could get complicated
Fortunately for the Silver and Black, their route to the top is simple: lose both games. That will be easier said than done, even without Brock Bowers and Jeremy Chinn. As for the team's rooting interests for the rest of the Week 17 schedule, it gets a bit complicated and layered.
Here is Raider Nation's cheering guide for the penultimate week of the season, starting with the most important game of the year:
Giants beat Raiders
That's it. Incredibly simple. After the Tennessee Titans' win last week, the Raiders and Giants are the only two teams with two wins on the year, and after Sunday, barring a tie, one will slide to 2-14, and the other will join the fray with several other three-win teams.
And that is exactly where things get complicated. The following Week 17 results would benefit the Raiders in terms of giving them insurance and making things less crowded as they vie for the top pick in April:
Cardinals beat Bengals
Browns beat Steelers
Titans beat Saints
Jets beat Patriots
If all four of these results occurred, the Raiders would still control their destiny to a top-two pick, win or lose against the Giants. However, not all of these results jive with what is best for their strength of schedule if they do end up competing with a handful of other three-win teams.
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Based purely on strength of schedule alone, Las Vegas needs these outcomes this weekend:
Texans beat Chargers
Saints beat Titans
Steelers beat Browns
Eagles beat Bills
49ers beat Bears
Packers beat Ravens
See where this gets confusing? For clearing the path, the Raiders should want the Titans and Browns to win. Strength of schedule-wise, however, it behooves Las Vegas for both of those teams to lose. In a way, they can't win, but they also can't lose either. It's just complicated.
The following results may as well happen, as the Washington Commanders getting their fifth win would guarantee the Raiders a top-six pick, the Minnesota Vikings losing improves Las Vegas' fourth-round draft position, and the rest benefit the team if they get into a tie with the other three-win teams:
Commanders beat Cowboys
Lions beat Vikings
Chiefs beat Broncos
Jaguars beat Colts
Dolphins beat Bucs
Seahawks beat Panthers
Rams beat Falcons
As multi-dimensional as this may seem, it is rather simple: the Raiders lose twice, and nothing stands in their way of the No. 1 pick. If they lose, fans may need to consult this guide more, as that is where things get complicated.