It's fair to say that things have not gone according to plan for Geno Smith in his first season with the Las Vegas Raiders. Even after a good performance in the first game after the bye, his 11 interceptions were still tied for the most in the league heading into Week 10.
After a solid Week 9 performance with Brock Bowers finally fully healthy for an entire game, Smith regressed once again in a humiliating Week 10 loss to the Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football.
Any idea of the Raiders replacing Smith for 2026 centers around who the options might be, and if Pete Carroll is still around. Carroll will not be easily moved off his favorite quarterback, but Smith's successor could easily be selected in next April's draft.
Raiders offered the worst possible 2026 Geno Smith alternative imaginable
On a recent episode of the Vegas Nation podcast, Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal expressed that exact sentiment.
"I think Geno Smith’s still going to be the quarterback next year,” Bonsignore said. “You’ve got to get him comfortable, you got to get him in a right headspace, because this is probably going to be a two-year deal, even if they draft a quarterback next offseason.”
As a practical matter, Smith's three-year deal with the Raiders is a full two-year commitment with no guaranteed salary in 2027. According to Over The Cap, trading him in 2026 would clear his $26.5 million cap hit off the books with no dead money, but that's not happening if Carroll is the coach.
Moe Moton of Bleacher Report followed the trade deadline by predicting some players who could be traded during the 2026 offseason. He led his list with seven-year veteran Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray.
Murray is currently on IR with a foot issue that has already cost him multiple games. There is a legitimate scenario where he has already made his last start for the Cardinals, and NFL Network's Ian Rapoport seemingly believes that there is more than meets the eye with his injury situation.
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Even if Murray does play again this season, an offseason parting of ways feels inevitable after a disappointing seven years. But there will be teams who have Murray on their radar next offseason, especially after what Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold have done in their proverbial "second acts."
Moton has the Carolina Panthers as his most ideal landing spot for Murray, which makes sense, given Bryce Young's struggles. He also has the Raiders as another potential suitor for the former No. 1 overall pick in a deal that he believes will cost multiple future first-rounders.
As Moton noted, Murray has a big chunk of guaranteed money for 2026 ($36.8 million, according to Over The Cap). His $19.5 million base salary for 2027 also becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2026 league year.
That will factor into a potential trade for the Cardinals and any team that may be interested in acquiring him. If the Raiders were to consider moving on from Smith in the offseason, and it's patently unlikely as long as Carroll is the coach, a clear upgrade would have to be in play.
Murray is certainly not that on a talent level alone. Raider Nation saw him play one of his best games against the Silver and Black back in 2022, but he clearly lacks the "it" factor as a leader that can be a differentiator for quarterbacks.
As Murray's days with the Cardinals seem to be winding down, the Raiders are easy to name as a potential offseason suitor. In fact, according to the Associated Press' Josh Dubow, Las Vegas is the current betting favorite to land Murray.
But trading for Murray would be a pivot that accomplishes nothing, outside of getting a little younger under center. It'd be better to go all the way in on that front with a 2026 draft pick who eventually replaces Smith, instead of giving up tons of future capital for a marginal improvement, if any.