However it looked, the Las Vegas Raiders needed to find an upgrade at quarterback this past offseason. Some bold hypotheticals were out there about trading for Geno Smith, and those came to fruition, easily explained by his tie to new head coach Pete Carroll.
In a Week 1 win over the New England Patriots, Smith played very well. Then he threw multiple interceptions in three of the next four games, with the only exception during that stretch being a garbage-time-padded outing in Week 3 against the Washington Commanders.
On the way to a 2-8 record, Smith has also been immune to being held accountable for his poor play. While another reconstruction of the offensive line did him no favors in Week 11 against the Dallas Cowboys, Smith didn't play very well. Yet Carroll continues to defend his hand-picked quarterback.
Carroll is the only one left who would say he "really believes" in Smith with any conviction. Blaming what's gone on around him for his ineptitude only goes so far. According to Pro Football Focus, seven of Smith's league-high 13 interceptions this season have come when he has had a clean pocket.
One stat defines Raiders' 2025 season and highlights short-sighted offseason move
While others gave their stamp of approval on the trade for Smith, Carroll was the obvious driver of the move, and it would not have happened unless he wanted it to. Fans see how well that has gone, and there are no signs that anything will change over the final seven games of the campaign.
Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report recently offered one stat that defines this season for each NFL team, and the stat that he chose related to Smith, who has easily been the team's worst offseason acquisition.
"Las Vegas Raiders: 55.2
"That's Geno Smith's passer rating on attempts that have traveled 15-plus yards downfield. Among 22 quarterbacks with at least 40 such passes in those situations, that rating ranks dead-last. Five of his tied-for-league-worst 13 interceptions have come on deep balls," Gagnon wrote.
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The punch line of Gagnon's assessment says it all.
"The experiment has failed."B/R's Brad Gagnon on Geno Smith
In each of the three seasons before this year, for what it's worth, Smith had a least a 95.1 PFF grade on deep passes, which is defined by PFF as a pass 20-plus yards downfield. Whatever the reasons behind the decline are, that grade has cratered to just 67.7 so far this season, which even feels kind.
When the trade happened, it didn't necessarily feel like Carroll's adoration for Smith overshadowed any true assessment of who he is as a quarterback. Now, 10 games into the season, Smith's erosion in proficiency on downfield passes reveals his overall decline as well as any single number can.