Marshawn Lynch could reach 10,000 career rushing yards vs. Chargers

Marshawn Lynch has the opportunity to do something historic on Sunday. He is within reach of 10,000 career rushing yards. Can he do it versus the Chargers?

Running the football for a living can wear even the most talented of tailbacks out. Most of the best running backs in NFL history hit the metaphorical wall sometime around their 30th birthday. After spending a year out of the sport, Oakland Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch has the chance at joining an elusive club on Sunday versus the Los Angeles Chargers.

In the final week of the 2017 NFL season, Lynch could become the 31st running back in NFL history to go over 10,000 career rushing yards. He would be the second player to do so in 2017, joining Buffalo Bills tailback LeSean McCoy. The only two other active players to be over 10,000 yards on the ground are Frank Gore of the Indianapolis Colts and Adrian Peterson of the Arizona Cardinals.

Lynch is at 9,902 career rushing yards with one game remaining in 2017 versus a Chargers team fighting for a playoff berth. Does Lynch have what it takes to get over 10,000? Will he need one more season to hit that threshold in September 2018?

On the year, Lynch has 188 carries for 790 yards and seven rushing touchdowns in 14 games. Keep in mind that he was suspended for the Raiders’ Week 8 road loss to the Bills in Orchard Park. However since coming back from that suspension, Lynch has gone on a tear in the Raiders backfield.

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He has emerged as the bell-cow back for the Silver and Black. Since the suspension, Lynch has had over 57 yards in all seven games, scoring five of his seven touchdowns. Outside of the debacle in Kansas City in Week 14, Lynch has had at least 11 carries in each ball game. Last week, Lynch ran the ball 25 times for 95 yards against the formidable Philadelphia Eagles defense.

So we know that Lynch will need 98 yards on Sunday versus the Chargers to get to 10,000 career rushing yards. How many carries would that take in theory? Are the Chargers a run defense Lynch could rack up yards on anyway?

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Lynch is averaging 4.2 yards per carry this season, so he would need 24 carries to break 10,000 at his season-long pace. However, Lynch has averaged 4.5 yards per carry in his last seven games. That means he could need 22 carries at that newer rushing rate.

Since coming back from the one-game suspension, Lynch has averaged 74.9 yards per game on the ground. That won’t be enough to get him to 10,000 career rushing yards unfortunately. Keep in mind that he has only gone over 100 yards once this season. That came back on Week 13 at home in the victory over the New York Giants. Lynch had 17 carries for 101 in that contest.

In short, Lynch will need one of his three best games of the season to break the 10,000 career yard rushing threshold. However, he will be doing so against the worst run defense in football. Los Angeles has 1,993 rushing yards all season. The Chargers let the opposing running back average 4.9 yards per attempt on their defense and 132.9 yards per game.

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So let’s bring it all back home. The Raiders have nothing left to play for but pride. They struggle to pass the ball with Derek Carr under center. Oakland has had its best success offensively when Lynch gets carries in the teens. Los Angeles struggles mightily in run defense. Overall, it’s less than 50/50 Lynch will break 10,000 career rushing yards in this game. However, he just needs one more Beast Mode run to inevitably get him there. Let’s go for it!

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