Could the Oakland Raiders actually draft a QB next year?

The Oakland Raiders could find themselves at a crossroad if this season continues to play out the way it has, and it may come a the expense of Derek Carr.

The start of the 2018 season has not been kind to the Oakland Raiders as they find themselves at 0-3 going into week 4. The high of having Jon Gruden return has quickly ended for some fans, and the reality of this team’s deficiencies are showing at the end of games.

After the Khalil Mack trade, there was an expectation that the pass rush would likely struggle, so that’s not a shock. And with the lack of high-end athletes or playmakers on defense, it is hard to imagine them being anything more than average.

The idea when they traded Mack was that Derek Carr would become the face of the franchise and the offense would be what carried the team. Well, so far they have perfected the ability to gain tons of yards yet score little points. The Raiders currently rank 6th in total yards on offense but are 28th in points per game. They score touchdowns of 44% of their red zone trips and are overall just confusing unit. And to be honest, they are a reflection of their quarterback, who is becoming one of the most confusing players in the league.

Carr’s arm talent says he should be one of the rising stars in this league, but the stats say he is just an average quarterback. He ranks 22nd in total QB and Pro Football Focus’ QB score and is tied for the league lead in interceptions (5). Even when he was at his best in 2016, he only ranked 16th in QBR. That stat isn’t everything, but there are signs that Carr may not have been the transcending player Oakland thought he was during the 12-4 season.

More from Just Blog Baby

And beyond advance stats, when you look at all the QBs in the league, where does Carr actual rank?

To start the season, I would have listed Carr as 14th best in the league, which pretty much puts him in the area of average or slightly above. Through these first three games, I’d say he’s fallen into the 20s. Which is scary for a guy who is the 6th highest paid player in the NFL.

So the question becomes is Carr actually a franchise QB? And if not, is this Gruden-Carr pairing going to last?

With Gruden overhauling the roster and pretty much saying (without saying) that this team is in rebuild mode if Carr performs like a below average quarterback the rest of the season, we could very well see the Raiders go another direction.

In a recent mock draft by Jon Ledyard of The Draft Network, he had the Raiders drafting Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert. Here is his reasoning:

"Sorry, Raiders fans. I think John Gruden is determined to blow the whole thing up, and I don’t think Carr is good enough to keep him from taking a quarterback early. Herbert has exceptional physical ability and his ball placement and accuracy have improved wonderfully this season. He’s a bit raw still, but the Raiders’ view should be all about the long term at this point."

When I first saw this, I considered it a big stretch, but when we analyze how Gruden has been approaching things, it honestly wouldn’t surprise me at all. Every time a new coach comes in they want “their guys,” and as much as Gruden praised Carr before the season, he isn’t his guy. We’ve already seen Gruden in interviews express some unhappiness with Carr’s decision making, and I’m sure he has expressed much more in the film room and at practice.

And what is really not being talked about enough is Oakland’s ability to get out of Carr’s contract at the end of this year.

Take a look the structure of the deal (courtesy of spotrac.com)

Gruden’s contract allows him to think long-term and if Carr is underperforming, there is a reason to doubt that he’ll be in the future plans. With multiple first-round picks the next year Oakland could easily draft a QB and would only further open up cap space to build other parts of the team. The winning formula now days is either have a top level QB like a Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers & Drew Brees or have a rising QB on a rookie deal as the Seahawks did with Russell Wilson and what the Eagles just did with Carson Wentz. The Rams are looking like this year’s example with what they’ve been able to do because of what little money Jared Goff makes.

Next. Browns at Raiders: 3 Players to Watch. dark

At the moment the Raiders have neither in Carr, he is not elite or cheap. I personally am not saying the Raiders should move on, but the idea needs to be presented. Especially if this season ends the way it has started.

Home/Derek Carr