Too much speculation around “make or break year” for Derek Carr

The Oakland Raiders have been taking a look at all draft options at quarterback this year, but is it really a “make or break” season for Derek Carr.

Derek Carr is no stranger to adversity.

As a 10-year old, Derek Carr watched his oldest brother, David, take the reigns of the NFL’s newest expansion franchise, the Houston Texans. In five seasons with the Texans, Derek watched his brother throw 59 touchdowns, 65 interceptions while taking 249 sacks, including 76 his rookie year.

Watching how David handled this adversity prepared Derek mentally for his future.

There has been a lot of speculation about what Oakland Raiders head coach Jon Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock plan to do with Derek Carr in 2019 and beyond, and based off of Gruden’s history with quarterbacks, it doesn’t look like Derek Carr is going anywhere. The main argument that everyone has when Carr’s name is mentioned is that his best year was in his 2016 MVP campaign, however, he was statistically better in 2015 than he was in 2016.

In 2016, the stat that is forgotten are the five 4th quarter comeback wins, which caused the miraculous 12-4 season. 2018 was his most complete year with his second-highest passer rating, yards per game, highest completion percentage, and second-lowest TD to INT ratio. Not to mention the team had the league’s worst defense giving up 29.2 points per game, with 13 total team sacks and 14 INT.

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People tend to then go to the moniker of “Captain Checkdown” when describing Carr, stating that he tends to throw to only his running back or tight end. However if you watch the 22-man film and watch the pocket progression the “check down” throws to Jale Richard and Jared Cook are designed plays. And if we go through the week-by-week spray charts, we can see even ball distribution across the field.

Granted, fans look at players like Pat Mahomes, who are prone to air it out and take more chances in an Andy Reid offense, but that’s just that, the design of the offense. When using Mahomes as an example it must also be taken into account that this is his first year playing in a league that has seen no film on him other than a meaningless end of the year game in Denver, and college tape.

Generally, players that have similar styles of play like Colin Kaepernick, Johnny Manziel, Tim Tebow and Cam Newton have either had to adjust their style of play, or have exited the league. Historically Gruden’s offense is similar to that of Bill Belichick in which it is a hybrid of a power running scheme, a back who is fantastic catching out of the backfield, strong tight end play and quick playmaking wide receiver that can stretch the field.

Many will argue that the Raiders traded away their best wide receiver in Amari Cooper last season. There is also the argument that Cooper did not want to be a member of the Raiders. There is one thing that cannot be argued and that is a first round pick for Amari Cooper was a great win for the Oakland Raiders.

Statistically the team got better once  Cooper was traded to the Dallas Cowboys, and opened the door for the Raiders to trade for Antonio Brown, (a third and fifth round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft)  a player that developed great chemistry with Derek Carr in the 2016 Pro Bowl, and credits Carr as one of the factors in his decision to choose the Raiders. Also factoring in that Gruden had to tell Derek Carr “don’t worry about knowing everything in the playbook, just focus on playing.”

Coach Gruden’s playbook and offense takes a solid two years to master and develop, so why would he want to move on from a QB who in year two of a complex offensive system, and is primed to take the franchise to a new market with one of the most electrifying wide receivers in the game and bring in a rookie who will have a two-year learning curve.

Jon Gruden doesn’t work well with rookies in marquee positions, just ask Jerry Porter. We have seen the confidence in Carr that was shown in his 2016 campaign that was ended by injury, but let’s also look at the tale of the tape, he was only sacked 16 times compared to his 51 times in 2018.

Of course Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock are going to do due diligence with quarterbacks in this year’s draft. Coach Gruden is a quarterback guy, and many would argue he misses doing his quarterback camp and this gives him the ability to do so.

In addition, taking a long look at all the quarterbacks also gives him the ability to scout his future opponents. This is chess not checkers and if I have the ability to study the person I am going to be facing for the next nine-plus years up close, I’m going to jump at it.

Will the Raiders take a QB in the 2019 draft? It’s probable but don’t expect it until the 4th round. A rookie backup QB is cheaper than Mike Glennon and is probably better than Nathan Peterman.