With a 2-7 record during the 2025 NFL season, and likely against the will of head coach Pete Carroll, the future is moving into focus for the Las Vegas Raiders. Whether Carroll will be, or will want to be, a part of that future is a growing question.
If the 2026 NFL Draft happened tomorrow, the Raiders would have the sixth overall pick in the event. When it's all said and done this season, a top-10 overall pick feels like a lock and a top-five pick is definitely possible.
According to ESPN's Football Power Index, through Week 10, five teams currently have at least a 5% chance to land the No. 1 overall pick in next April's draft. With that in mind, ESPN took a look each of those five teams in a few categories centered around the prospect of landing the top overall pick.
ESPN analyst outlines a scenario for Raiders to move on from Geno Smith
Las Vegas currently has a 7% chance to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, which means that it is unlikely, but not impossible, for the Raiders to end up at the top of the draft board ESPN's Dan Graziano offered up what the Raiders landing that pick would mean for Geno Smith.
"Probably the end of his time in Las Vegas. If the Raiders get the No. 1 pick, that almost certainly means Smith won't have turned his season around and the Raiders could be looking at a lot of changes, including at quarterback. Smith does have $18.5 million in guaranteed salary coming in 2026 no matter what, and another $8 million becomes fully guaranteed if he's still on the roster on the third day of the league year next March. But because of the way the Raiders handle bonus structure in their veteran contracts, that $18.5 million is all the dead money they'd have to carry on their 2026 salary cap for Smith if they cut him before the third day of the league year."
Smith's contract is a significant barrier to the Raiders parting ways one season into his time with the team. $18.5 million in dead money is attached to any timing of a move to cut him, and the remaining $8 million of his salary becomes guaranteed on the third day of the 2026 league year.
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Some concessions would surely have to be made, likely centered around that remaining $8 million due to him in 2026. But trading Smith, if a suitor could be found, would be far more beneficial, theoretically clearing his entire $26.5 million cap hit off the books via a straightforward trade.
Unless a clearly better quarterback option ends up becoming available in free agency, fans can comfortably assume that Smith will be a Raider in 2026. Especially considering Smith's deep-sated relationship with Carroll, who is likely to be around next year as well.
But if things continue to go as they have this season, owner Mark Davis cannot, in good conscience, allow Carroll and Smith to run things back next year just as they did during this campaign. A first-round quarterback can change everything, and the Raiders would have to take the leap.