Fernando Mendoza does not currently have the inside track to be the Las Vegas Raiders' starting quarterback when the 2026 NFL season begins. Not only are the Raiders' veterans playing well in the early going, but the young quarterback just hasn't shown what he needs to quite yet. And that is okay.
But a universe certainly exists -- probably this one, as it stands now -- in which Las Vegas trots out Kirk Cousins to begin the year and Aidan O'Connell serves as the primary backup. That would leave Mendoza as the third-string quarterback, which sounds crazy, but is entirely possible.
So, while Mendoza is clearly still the franchise player and Raider Nation remains optimistic about him in the long-term, they are, or at least should be, tempering their expectations for his rookie campaign. This all makes a recent "realistic expectation" from Bleacher Report sound a bit off the rails.
Prediction that Las Vegas Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza can win OROY currently feels far-fetched
Bleacher Report's Alex Kay stated his realistic expectations for the NFL's first-year quarterbacks during their rookie campaigns, and he got a bit too optimistic about Mendoza, if such a thing exists. He said that winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award is a realistic expectation for Mendoza.
"Mendoza's next step will be his toughest yet, as he'll be tasked with starting from Week 1 and turning around a listless organization, one that has won just seven games over the past two seasons combined and lacks proven talent across the roster.
"One of the biggest changes for the young passer is lining up under center, something Mendoza wasn't asked to do by the Hoosiers.Â
"If Mendoza is completely comfortable under center, it will open the offense and allow the Raiders to be more competitive in what is still likely to be a rebuilding year.Â
"Mendoza isn't the favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award—he narrowly trails Jeremiyah Love at DraftKings Sportsbook—but a hot start could see him overtake the Arizona Cardinals running back and win another piece of hardware."
Perhaps Kay isn't privy to what has been transpiring in Las Vegas this offseason, but the assertion that Mendoza is being "tasked with starting from Week 1" is just plain incorrect, at least as things currently are. That is, unless Kay knows something that we all, including Klint Kubiak, don't.
Now, Raider Nation would love this expectation to become a reality. Fans want to see their young quarterback performing well as soon as possible, but they also know that, barring a coming-out party in training camp and the preseason, Mendoza will be on the sidelines to begin the 2026 campaign.
Every week that he sits and watches will be a black mark against his Offensive Rookie of the Year case. Jaxson Dart and Tyler Shough both performed well as first-year quarterbacks last year, but they couldn't beat out Tetairoa McMillan because they just didn't have a big enough sample size.
If Mendoza balls out in the preseason or takes the reins in the regular season sooner than expected, then his being in the running for this coveted award could absolutely be back in play. After all, he was the No. 1 pick and is a tremendous talent in a better situation than most realize.
Given the current landscape in Las Vegas, though, Mendoza earning any kind of award as a rookie feels miles away. The young quarterback is just trying to get on the field and earn the trust of the Raiders' coaches, so this "realistic expectation" is more of a long shot, for now.
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