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Predicting when the Fernando Mendoza era will officially begin in Las Vegas

When do the Raiders turn things over to their young QB?
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza runs through a drill during a Rookie Minicamp.
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza runs through a drill during a Rookie Minicamp. | Candice Ward-Imagn Images

Klint Kubiak and John Spytek clearly have a plan for new Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza. If they didn't, they wouldn't have wagered the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft on him. But the fanbase and the rest of the team aren't privvy to it, and that has led to tons of speculation.

Some think that Mendoza should be thrown to the wolves immediately in Week 1 and left to learn on the job. Others see the benefit of letting him sit an entire season if the Raiders can skate by with Kirk Cousins. A majority of fans fall somewhere in the middle, but don't have a clear answer on when.

Having a late bye during the 2026 NFL season complicates the timeline for when Mendoza can easily be inserted into the lineup. But our best guess is now that the Mendoza era will officially begin in Las Vegas in Week 6 against the Buffalo Bills at Allegiant Stadium.

Las Vegas Raiders could start Fernando Mendoza in Week 6 against Buffalo Bills

Now, outside of waiting until Week 14 to put Mendoza in the lineup or just handing him the keys from the jump, this seems like the easiest (easy being a relative term) time to put the rookie quarterback in the line of fire. And it may seem a bit random, but stick with us.

Five weeks is plenty of a sample size for Cousins, and the Raiders can say they gave him an honest shot. Cousins can't be upset with playing over a quarter of the season and, if things go as most expect, given Las Vegas' brutal schedule, having to hand Mendoza the reins if they're 1-4 or worse.

With the Dolphins, Chargers, Saints, Chiefs and Patriots on the schedule, it is certainly feasible that the Raiders get out to another slow start. And honestly, the only way to potentially quiet any Maxx Crosby trade noise is to give the team a shot in the arm before the trade deadline with Mendoza.

Plus, if Mendoza were to start in Week 6, he'd get two straight home games to begin his career (Las Vegas hosts the Los Angeles Rams in Week 7) before heading to New York for a favorable matchup against the Jets. And it is not as if the Bills have some lethal defense anymore, as they did years ago.

Sean McDermott is gone after Buffalo's defense regressed in 2025, and they have an unproven commodity in Jim Leonhard as their new defensive coordinator. While the young coach is still figuring things out, it could be a good opportunity for Mendoza to start on the right foot.

And we are not alone in thinking this, as it turns out. ESPN's Ryan McFadden also predicted that the Raiders would hand things off to Mendoza in Week 6, even though he wouldn't rule out that the rookie could start from the get-go.

"It would be poetic for Mendoza to start in Week 1 against the Dolphins since he grew up in South Florida. But the most realistic expectation is that the reigning Heisman Trophy winner will make his debut in Week 6. Spytek, Kubiak and even minority owner Tom Brady are believers in playing a young quarterback as soon as possible. But unless Mendoza puts together a stellar training camp, which could very well happen, expect him to be the primary backup for the first few weeks of his rookie year."

It is nearly impossible to predict exactly when the Mendoza era will begin. OTAs haven't even started yet, so perhaps we are getting ahead of ourselves anyway. But Week 6 seems like a happy median, and it's one of the only things that makes sense with the heinous schedule the NFL gave the Raiders.

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