If The Oakland Raiders Sign One Free Agent, It Should Be Tony Jefferson

If the Oakland Raiders sign just one free agent this offseason, it should be Tony Jefferson.

Well that was a nice thought — Eric Berry as a member of the Oakland Raiders — now wasn’t it?

But as we all expected, it will not come to be. Berry signed a 6-year, $78M contract with $40M guaranteed, which at an average of $13M per season, makes him the highest paid safety in the NFL. As it should. Congratulations to Berry, who has earned it — on and off the field and beyond the scope of most.

Despite excellent play from rookie Karl Joseph (when healthy) and a Pro Bowl season from veteran Reggie Nelson, the Raiders need depth and talent at the safety position. Bringing back Nate Allen on a one-year contract is practical. But the price must be right, or his days in Silver and Black could be over.

The safety market is fairly flush this season, and the best option is Arizona Cardinals run-stuffing dynamo Tony Jefferson. This idea is popular at JBB.

The Cardinals just franchised OLB Chandler Jones at $15M per season, and have another major free agent in DE Calais Campbell, who is under contract at $9.5M per year. The Cardinals have a little over $17M in cap room right now, per Sportrac — they can’t afford to keep everyone.

Therefore, a long-term deal with both Campbell and Jefferson seems unlikely, with the money committed to Jones, Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald. Needing to fill out the 53-man roster and sign a few of their own free agents, it looks difficult for the Cardinals to keep both players.

With one or both likely to hit the market, the Raiders are very interested. Campbell is the big prize but Jefferson immediately upgrades the secondary while also vastly improving the run defense.

The interest appears mutual. Jefferson discussed possibly joining the Raiders on Twitter, noting the team knows “wassup”. Taking the cue, Raider Nation made him feel the love:

yeee.. we'll see in couple weeks tho ,they know wassup lol
— Tony Jefferson II (@_tonyjefferson) February 13, 2017

After this exchange, Raider Nation peppered Jefferson with so much love that Jefferson jokingly noted he can’t speak to his Raider fan friends on Twitter anymore:

https://twitter.com/_tonyjefferson/status/831626828943126529?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Jefferson understands this passion, growing up in Oklahoma as a card-carrying member of Raider Nation. He knows Raider Nation from the inside and is now feeling the love from the outside. He’s clearly enjoying it, even if some folks think this signing won’t happen. Remember, master recruiter Bruce Irvin isn’t started in the mix yet.

Rumor has it the Jets are going to strongly pursue Jefferson. But the Jets do not have the talent, cap room, or rapport with Jefferson that the Raiders and Raider Nation currently enjoy.

Jefferson is a strong safety. Joseph played strong safety last season. But Joseph also spent the majority of his West Virginia career at free safety, and his speed and range in centerfield are top-tier. With experience and ability to play free safety, teaming Joseph with Jefferson would give the Raiders a safety tandem that is young, talented, and versatile for years to come.

Jefferson excels in man coverage on tight ends, something that has plagued the Raiders for….ever. Nelson is a better centerfielder than coverage man, and Joseph is often physically overwhelmed by the bigger TE’s. The Raiders linebackers just aren’t good at it. Anyone who has thrown stuff at other stuff while watching Malcolm Smith et al flail around in coverage appreciates this and yearns deeply for someone who can take the pain away. Jefferson is that man.

Nelson is 33 years old, has lost a step and was often out of position last year. He is a ball hawk but he is also a liability in the run game. Though not a ball hawk, Jefferson is an absolute terror in the run game. He averaged 4.3 solo tackles per game last season, and rarely misses tackles.

Jefferson doesn’t possess elite speed but he does possess innate instincts and uses excellent pursuit angles to reach the ball carrier quickly in the run game.

His biggest weakness, if he has one, is covering quick receivers in the slot. Joseph is more adept at this, and Jefferson could concentrate more on his strengths of TE coverage and run support. It is a match made in heaven with two players having strengths that compliment one another — and scare the crap out of running backs.

Sportrac estimates Jefferson’s market value at around $5.8M per year. However, with Berry re-setting the market, Jefferson could command more. Since he only made $1.76M last season, a jump up to first-tier safety money would be a giant leap. Plus, he’s only had one great year since coming in undrafted from Oklahoma in 2013. His 2016 was a great year, though.

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Per Pro Football Focus, Jefferson was the top run stuffing safety in the NFL in 2016. His 35 run stops were third among NFL safeties last season, and he only missed five of 98 tackle attempts all season.

His coverage numbers were also stellar. He allowed less than 50% completions and a measly 7.1 yards per catch when the primary coverage defender, and was PFF’s 5^th overall graded safety for the year.

Jefferson’s play combined with the new market may push his price tag up for a team willing to gamble.

Oh, and he’s only 25 years old.

The snag here is that the Raiders have to consider long-term deals for Derek Carr, Khalil Mack, and Gabe Jackson in the near future. Amari Cooper will be coming up after that. Drafting well is great for building your roster, but it gets expensive after the first few years.

The Raiders, though, have about $43M in cap space. Reggie McKenzie will figure out a way to spread the money around in the most cap-friendly way.

Next: The Case To Re-Sign Perry Riley Jr.

Money is not a deal-breaker here. The Raiders went after Jefferson last season. If they want him this season — they have plenty of ways to get him.

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