In a year that has been as painful to sit through as any post-2006 campaign, one of the biggest reasons that the Las Vegas Raiders may end up with the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft has been the thoroughly below-average play of quarterback Geno Smith.
Any hope that Smith was going to live up to his big contract has been all but extinguished, and the Raiders clearly need a young quarterback of the future. Ideally, they find that prize signal-caller in next April's draft.
Las Vegas will likely be making calls and looking for ways to offload the struggling veteran onto some other team. There may not be much of a market for the 35-year-old quarterback who is playing some of the worst football of his career.
Raiders may either cut or trade Geno Smith before 2026 season
According to Jeff Howe of The Athletic, however, the two most likely solutions for what will happen with Smith before the 2026 season is either a trade away from the Raiders in exchange for a late-round NFL Draft pick or an outright release.
"It’s not entirely inconceivable the Raiders could land a late-round pick for Smith in a trade," Howe said in his latest rumor dump for The Athletic. "But a release could be the more likely option if the Raiders decide to part ways."
Smith defenders actually have some firm grounds for defense after this season. Given one of the worst wide receiver rooms in the league, the absolute worst offensive line in the NFL, and an offensive coordinator who was fired mid-season and reportedly calling plays that weren't in the playbook, Smith may have been set up to fail.
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However, the same downfield accuracy that helped Smith turn his career around in Seattle seems to have dried up. He has made countless mistakes of his own volition as well, as he leads the entire league in interceptions.
Even if Smith was going to turn things around with a better offense around him, the rebuilding Raiders can't pass up the chance to land a franchise quarterback.
In a thin quarterback class, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza and Oregon's Dante Moore might be the only players who are worth taking with such a high pick. With the quarterback-needy Cleveland Browns and New York Jets hot on their tail, the Raiders can't let this golden opportunity pass them by.
Smith may yet get one more season as a bridge quarterback under his belt, and it may indeed come with the Raiders if none of the trade offers are worth writing home about. But it has been made clear that Smith is not going to be the guy who turns Las Vegas into an AFC West contender.